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This in from Mike Kelly of the NHL network: “Expect Mattias Janmark to stay with the Edmonton Oilers. 1-year, around $1M.”
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My take
1. Janmark isn’t everyone’s cup of tea but he is my cup of tea. He can skate fast, make a play with the puck and he and Derek Ryan are the smartest defensive forwards the Oilers have had in many years, since Shawn Horcoff and Fernando Pisani were on the squad. Not everyone is adept when it comes to rating the defensive prowess of forwards, as there are few individual stats that drill deep into the work of players on defence, certainly few that are available to the public. That’s why you’ll see some pushback at this signing by the Oilers. There’s a lack of appreciation for all that a player like Janmark does.
2. At the Cult of Hockey, we’ve done extensive video analysis of all Grade A shots for and against the Oilers since 2010-11. In that time, we’ve found few forwards more adept than Janmark at suppressing Grade A shots against. He’s rarely out of position. He wins most of his defensive battles. He makes few major mistakes on Grade A shots against. And on a mediocre Edmonton penalty kill, he was one of the few forwards who got the job done.
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He made just 19 major mistakes on Grade A shots in 833 even strength minutes just 0.34 per game. Zach Hyman was at 0.79 per game by comparison (see chart below).
3. Janmark was injured in the playoffs, in and out of the line-up, and greatly missed. He would have brought a steadying presence on the ice when the Oilers most needed it, such as protecting a lead.
4. If Edmonton is going to succeed this year, the coaches have to revamp their iffy one-on-one defensive scheme and the players have to focus on covering off the defensive slot like never before, something that will be made easier if a new defensive system focuses on keeping at least one d-man in the defensive slot at all times. This kind of systemic change will do much to limit mistakes by players, but it doesn’t hurt to have players like Janmark, already outstanding on defence, to lead the way on the sweeping changes need in the Edmonton end.