Lowetide: Do The Edmonton Oilers Have Enough Actual NHL Players?

Once again, the Edmonton Oilers have a “McDavid ON, McDavid OFF” problem that threatens to derail an already disconcerting season.

Since he arrived in 2015-16, the club has been championship quality when Connor McDavid is on the ice at five-on-five. When he is on the bench and resting, the team bleeds goals at an exasperating rate.

There have been brief periods of quality on the other lines, but it’s rare and fleeting.

What is the problem?

History recalls

There have been times in NHL history when teams featuring elite talent had little to no depth.

One of the most famous teams of the past 60 years was the late 1960s Chicago Blackhawks. The 1966-67 team boasted four men on the first All-Star team (Bobby Hull, Stan Mikita, Kenny Wharram, Pierre Pilote) and one on the second team (Glenn Hall).

It was a strong contender annually for the Stanley Cup in those years, winning just once (1961).

The problem came from a lack of depth.

At centre the following season, Mikita was the top option followed by newly acquired Pit Martin (a solid veteran). The other centres on the opening night roster were 31-year-old minor leaguer Gerry Goyer and raw rookie Geoff Powis. Goyer and Powis narrowly beat out an attempted conversion of defenceman Paul Terbenche to centre during that fall’s training camp.

The step off of the elevator shaft on the depth chart after Mikita-Martin was historically bad, and the Hawks paid a price.

The Oilers are in a similar position after the top two lines, with McDavid and Leon Draisaitl representing the best 1-2 punch in the league at this time.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl represent the best 1-2 punch in the league at this time. (Perry Nelson / USA Today)

The McDavid Oilers

Since McDavid arrived, the Oilers have had issues, but they seemed to be solved when Jay Woodcroft took over the team. Those issues have returned this year.

Year	McDavid ON	McDavid OFF
2015-16	51 pct	42 pct
2016-17	62 pct	49 pct
2017-18	57 pct	42 pct
2018-19	51 pct	40 pct
2019-20	52 pct	44 pct
2020-21	57 pct	43 pct
2021-22	59 pct	47 pct
2022-23	55 pct	52 pct
2023-24	51 pct	43 pct

All numbers five-on-five

The McDavid OFF Oilers posted a goal share of over 50 percent in just one season, the single campaign that saw Woodcroft coaching for the full year.

This season, with Woodcroft as coach, McDavid OFF was 42 percent; McDavid ON was just 39 percent, owing to his injury and time with Connor Brown (who was coming back from a severe injury and a year off playing in the NHL).

Since the coaching change, McDavid ON is 56 percent and McDavid OFF is 44 percent. The only change is McDavid’s improved health.

Perhaps the most incredible statistic this season: Over 414 minutes five-on-five, McDavid ON has scored 23 goals (3.33 goals-60). McDavid OFF has scored 32 goals in 912 minutes (2.1 goals-60).

Those numbers show McDavid and his linemates provide 42 percent of the team’s offence in 31 percent of the five-on-five minutes played so far this season.

Edmonton without McDavid is a popgun offence that bleeds goals five-on-five.

What is the problem?

Increasingly, it’s becoming obvious the Oilers don’t have enough actual NHL players. The best way to explain this comes in the numbers without the captain.

All numbers five-on-five

The Oilers don’t have enough contributors who can play successful five-on-five hockey without McDavid at this time.

Injuries to Evander Kane and Brown are factors.

The impact is landing squarely on Draisaitl. The Ryan McLeod line is also being impacted.

Coach Kris Knoblauch adjusted on Sunday, splitting up the No. 1 line (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman with McDavid) by sending Nuge to the Draisaitl line and elevating Kane to the top unit.

One of the strange statistical facts about this team is the performance of players away from Brown.

At five-on-five, with Brown, Kane is 1-9 goals while on the ice. Draisaitl is 2-6 goals, McDavid 1-5.

Overall, when Brown is on the ice at five-on-five, the club is 3-12 (20 percent) and 52-52 (50 percent) without him.

What is the solution?

The obvious answer, and the one fans don’t like hearing, is patience.

At the beginning of the season, injuries to McDavid, McLeod and Mattias Ekholm had a major impact on the team. It’s reasonable to suggest those injuries contributed directly to Woodcroft being fired in November. Since the new coach arrived, things have been better for all three men.

Player	Pts-60	Goal Share
	4.71	55
	1.34	50
	0.57	55

All numbers five-on-five

These numbers, over the last month, show real improvement for all three men compared to the start of the season.

Why is that important? When we look at the seasons delivered by Kane and Brown, there should be improvement over the next six weeks.

It has been a season of struggle for both men.

Games	Pts-60	Goal Share
First 16	2.29	41 pct
Last 12	1.37	36 pct

First 10	0	0 (0-4 goals)
Last 12	0.39	27 pct

All numbers five-on-five

Ideally, the Oilers have a player who can step in and spell struggling or injured players like Kane or Brown. As the numbers above suggest, none of the current options are working.

What’s left?

Sam Gagner among the bottom-six forwards has at times stepped in. The contributions have not been explosive.

Dylan Holloway will return from injury after Christmas and could give the club a boost. He doesn’t have a strong scoring resume in the NHL but will need to contribute if he gets a shot on one of the top two lines.

The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent-Bowman wrote about the possibility of more than one forward added via outside procurement.

There’s also at least one option in Bakersfield playing for the Condors.

Raphael Lavoie has played in 14 AHL games this season. He has eight goals and 13 points. His goal share (56 percent, 10-8) is one of the best among skill forwards and his line is a high-event unit on the farm.

Lavoie played six NHL games with the Oilers earlier in the year. It might be time for a return to the NHL to see if the game has slowed down enough for him.

Lane Pederson looks impressive in the AHL as well, he could be a short-term solution.

Failing that, general manager Ken Holland will have to cast about for a trade. The club lacks assets to deal in such a transaction because the first-round pick is likely heading out for a right-handed defenceman or goaltender.