The Edmonton Oilers’ draft record since 2010 is famous because the team spent most of it sitting in the front row.
The honour for holding early picks is a nice seat close to the stage. The franchise didn’t just visit lottery row, the Oilers moved in.
Four times Edmonton sat in the most attractive spot available with the first pick.
More No. 1 selections than anyone in memory, the best player in the game and another in the conversation, plus miles and miles of NHL players scattered across the NHL. Also part of the record: One of the most famous draft missteps in the history of the game, and at least one other high pick that didn’t work as planned.
Management has been choosing later over the past four years. Myriad trades offloading picks meant the team didn’t choose many players at all.
In the last two drafts, 14 rounds in total, the Oilers chose seven players. One of them, Reid Schaefer, was traded within a year of being drafted.
This year’s top-20 prospect list does not resemble the recent past, or even the distant past.
The organization has reached a new low in prospect talent. How bad is it?
There are no generational talents, no one with an elite NHL future and incredibly none are assured of spending a decade in a feature role.
The group of 20 who appeared on last winter’s list is down to 12 who reappeared this year.
Players who graduated to the NHL with the Oilers include Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg and Vincent Desharnais. Players dealt in the last year: Schaefer and Mike Kesselring. Tyler Benson was not qualified and became a free agent. Jake Chiasson, who made the last in 2022, does not appear this year despite being eligible for the list.
The criteria for the list is straightforward. Players with over 50 NHL games (25 games for goalies) graduate and are no longer eligible.
Here is the 2023 top 20, with last winter’s rankings in brackets.
No. 1 (3) RW Xavier Bourgault, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
Xavier Bourgault is an impressive two-way winger, but the offence implied by his junior scoring numbers has yet to appear. In his freshman AHL campaign, there were injuries and slumps and the leap from junior to pro is massive.
It’s happening again in Year 2, and that is a concern. A look at Bourgault’s points by game state is especially worrisome.
| Year | EV | PP | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2022-23 |
0.32 |
0.19 |
0.55 |
|
2023-24 |
0.21 |
0.21 |
0.43 |
These numbers show offensive struggle at even strength and continue a disturbing trend for Oilers first-round selections. The organization is not getting strong offensive totals from their top picks. Holloway’s AHL career points per game at even strength (0.38) is superior to Bourgault’s (0.3) and Holloway is having a hard time scoring in the NHL.
Bourgault is a fine two-way forward and is above average as an outscorer. He badly needs to break out offensively and do it at even strength. It’s extremely unlikely he will spend much time on an NHL power play early in his career, and if he can’t post crooked numbers at even strength in the AHL it does not bode well for his NHL career.
Lack of offence from Bakersfield forwards is a theme in this year’s top 20. At some point, the focus will go from the players to the deployment. Bourgault began the year with Lane Pederson (a quality centre) and Sam Gagner (currently in the NHL) and scored 1-3-4 in the first five games.
Since then, the coaching staff has checked down to Matvey Petrov (another struggling youngster) and Greg McKegg (a checking centre). The results: 0-2-2 in nine games. This is a big drop in production.
Bourgault would benefit from time with Pederson. Since developing talent is the primary role of an AHL team, fans should expect Bourgault to replace veteran Seth Griffith in the primary role in the weeks to come.
No. 2 (NR) RD Beau Akey, Barrie Colts (OHL)
Beau Akey has several key bullet points on his resume: He is fast, he is skilled and he is a right-handed defenceman. It isn’t overstating it to say he may well have saved the Oilers’ 2023 draft, and he might be the best prospect chosen by this organization in the last several years.
The Oilers lost little time in signing him (Oct. 10) after a strong showing at the team’s rookie camp that precedes main training camp for the big club. He even saw preseason action (one game) and despite making an error on one goal he did not look overwhelmed by the moment.
Akey does have some chaos as a defensive player, but even that appears to be improving. His even-strength splits last season and this year (up until his injury) shows progress:
| Year | EV GF | EV GA | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2022-23 |
69 |
71 |
49 |
|
2023-24 |
11 |
6 |
65 |
All numbers even strength
Akey’s improvement defensively, along with his offensive ability (15-41-56 in his 80 most recent OHL games) and his impressive speed project him as a possible top-four defenceman in the NHL in the years to come.
Akey was injured in mid-November (shoulder) and will be out the rest of the season. He showed enough in 14 OHL games (4-5-9) to establish himself as the top defensive prospect in the organization at this time.
Raphael Lavoie made his NHL debut for the Oilers this season. (Perry Nelson / USA Today)
No. 3 (17) LW Raphael Lavoie, Edmonton Oilers (NHL); Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
Raphael Lavoie is NHL-ready and the owner of a value contract. He is not currently in the NHL. That implies the organization either doesn’t see him as part of the solution, or the club felt he had some things to work on after his first audition earlier this season.
Lavoie is the best first-shot scorer in the system, including volume of shots and production. Including this and all of last season, Lavoie has scored 31 goals in 70 AHL games.
He is also using his body more and bulling his way to the net. Lavoie is a big man (6-foot-4, 215 pounds) but only recently (in the last year) combined better foot speed with an aggressive checking style in turning over pucks.
He has been unable to deliver much in the NHL but has played in only six games and in a depth role. He should receive another recall at some point this season and could be in the NHL to stay if he can consistently bring the elements (size, shot, turnovers) he has employed successfully in the minors.
No. 4 (13) G Olivier Rodrigue, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
Olivier Rodrigue is trending in a good way. He has played just four games so far in the AHL this season (the organization is giving the AHL starts to Jack Campbell in an attempt to get him back to the NHL) but has been splendid when getting the net.
His career can be split into two segments: The first two years spent figuring out the league, and last season plus the start of this one impacting the AHL.
| Year | Save Pct | AHL Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2020-21 |
0.894 |
No. 23 |
|
2021-22 |
0.886 |
No. 38 |
|
2022-23 |
0.912 |
No. 9 |
|
2023-24 |
0.936 |
No. 1* |
*does not qualify due to lack of games
Rodrigue was a second-round selection in 2018 and was the second goaltender chosen in that year’s draft. He is listed at 6-foot-1, 175 pounds and that’s small for a modern goaltender. He looks bigger and stronger this season while retaining his quickness and agility.
The numbers don’t lie. Rodrigue is pushing for an NHL look. His playing time has been limited this season and obscures an emerging talent. Could Rodrigue see NHL games this season? He is earning the opportunity.
No. 5 (15) RD Max Wanner, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
The top-20 prospects list values skill and players with a wide range of ability. The last pure shutdown defenceman to be ranked among my top-five prospects was Matt Greene in 2005.
A shutdown defenceman has to be an impact player in order to cover off the lack of offence, and even then some production is important.
In the case of Wanner, he has the entire skill set to be an effective shutdown blueliner. He owns size, strength and a mean streak that is quickly becoming common knowledge in his early AHL games.
In his final WHL season, a scout told me, “he’s long and rangy and plays with a miserable bite. I don’t see him as an offensive player in pro and do question a bit at times how he sees himself re: some cheating and decisions with the puck and shot selection. But with some coaching, he’s got the goods. To me, he has all the markings of a guy who gets an NHL shot at some point and will sink or swim based on his ability to keep up with the pace of it. Given how harsh he is to play against in his giant frame, I don’t mind his odds.”
Wanner arrived in Bakersfield and quickly became a top option for the coaching staff. He plays regular minutes, and often with puck-moving veteran Cam Dineen. His even-strength goal share (9-10, 47 percent) is close to even despite his playing prominent minutes as a rookie. His anticipation and strength makes him noticeable at even strength and on the penalty kill. He is 20. This is unusual for a shutdown defenceman.
The leap from junior to the AHL is massive, and the miles of failed defencemen drafted by the Oilers over the last 40-plus seasons serves as proof. Wanner’s early emergence is a most encouraging sign.
No. 6 (8) LW Matvey Petrov, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
Matvey Petrov is a volume shooter and an impressive first-shot scorer. He has size (6-foot-2, 200 pounds) and a quick release, and in some ways is a similar talent in style to Lavoie. There is some evidence that Petrov is a more substantial playmaker, but it’s early days in his career.
He is making the difficult transition to pro hockey after two impact junior seasons. It is not going well, with just one goal in 14 games so far this season with Bakersfield. His shot volume is just one shot per game. Like Bourgault, Petrov isn’t a feature player on the power play but he is getting even-strength minutes.
The young winger is a better outscorer than his scouting report from junior suggested. So far in his career, Petrov’s even-strength goal differential is 6-1. That’s an impressive total.
Petrov is one of several offensive offensive forward prospects in Bakersfield who is having a difficult time finding his way. In the months to come, one of the young wingers should emerge as the leader of the pack. Petrov’s skill set gives him as good a shot as anyone.
No. 7 (5) LW Maxim Berezkin, Yaroslavl Lokomotiv (KHL)
Maxin Berezkin is the third big winger on this year’s list, trailing Lavoie and Petrov. Berezkin is not a similar player. Both Lavoie and Petrov bring skill and are first-shot scorers. Berezkin is more of a bull, closer to a power forward in style.
He can score off the rush with his shot, but is more comfortable as a net-front presence and looking for rebounds. His KHL numbers through two seasons as a regular suggest he has yet to break out but is holding his own.
| Year | Totals | Points-Game | EV Goal Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2022-23 |
7-19-26 in 52GP |
0.5 |
22-17 (56 pct) |
|
2023-24 |
4-12-16 in 35GP |
0.46 |
12-11 (52 pct) |
Berezkin ranks as one of the best forwards in the Oilers system, while also being a long shot to play in the NHL. Since drafting Nail Yakupov at No. 1 at the 2012 draft, Edmonton has chosen eight from Russian leagues. None of those players emerged as a career NHL player, and many (Anton Slepyshev, Bogdan Yakimov, Ziyat Paigin, Ilya Konovalov) bolted back to Russia after signing with the Oilers and coming to North America.
Edmonton can draft Russians, even sign some of them. Keeping them in North America has been a problem. Berezkin is worth signing.
No. 8 (NR) LW Shane Lachance, Boston University (NCAA)
Shane Lachance dominated the USHL at 19, scoring 33 goals in 62 games for the Youngstown Phantoms in 2022-23.
The questions surrounding the big power forward (he is 6-foot-4, 218 pounds) involved speed, plus the ability to score goals at higher levels against older, bigger players.
So far, his freshman season with Boston University has been impressive.
In 15 games this year, Lachance has five goals and nine points. He plays for a team that features an enormous number of impact freshmen. He is getting into games and having success, including two on the power play Friday night.
Lachance’s spot in college hockey is close to ideal for his skills and draft pedigree. If he can have some offensive success, while using his body effectively, the Oilers might have a pro-ready power forward with some offensive ability in a couple of seasons. He is getting chances.
No. 9 (11) LD Nikita Yevseyev, Kazan Ak Bars (KHL)
Nikita Yevseyev is in his second full season in the KHL and won’t turn 20 until next May. Although he has played in the VHL (Russian version of the AHL) in both of the last two seasons, his ability to play in one of the strongest leagues in the world at such a young age is a major tell.
Yevseyev’s style (he’s a shutdown type with a plus shot) and size (6-foot-1, 187 and still growing) fit with the priorities shown by the organization during the Ken Holland era. His numbers in both seasons have been rock solid, especially considering his youth.
| Year | TOI | Pts-Game | EV Goal Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2022-23 |
10:59 |
0.12 |
20-13 (61 pct) |
|
2023-24 |
8:49 |
0.16 |
9-7 (56 pct) |
Yevseyev is a legit NHL prospect, but his issues are similar to Berezkin’s. Edmonton should sign him and bring him to North America. The history of Russian players in Edmonton is an entry-level deal that gets dissolved before completion. Time in the minors is not attractive to the Russian players who hear the call of the KHL.
As a potential NHL player, Yevseyev is worth pursuing and was a value selection.
James Hamblin has already gotten into a dozen games for the Oilers in 2023-24. (Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)
No. 10 (NR) LC James Hamblin, Bakersfield Condors (AHL) and Edmonton Oilers (NHL)
James Hamblin was signed to an AHL deal by the organization in time for the 2020-21 season; the Oilers inked him to an NHL deal in March 2022. He and Desharnais marched through the system in similar fashion. Desharnais was a revelation a year ago for the NHL club; Hamblin is poised to do the same this season.
Hamblin is a utility player, able to do multiple things and prepared to step into any role. In the AHL, he plays big minutes in all game states.
In 10 NHL games in 2023-23, he showed good underlying numbers but no offence at five-on-five. This season, he’s delivering 2.02 points per 60 at five-on-five and owns a 57 percent goal share with the Oilers, via Natural Stat Trick.
Hamblin is a resourceful player who has been able to hone his skills. He could emerge as a useful two-way centre in the NHL. In fact, he’s already there. If he can sustain it, he’ll have a career.
No. 11 (7) LW Carter Savoie, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
Carter Savoie is a talented player but can’t seem to stay healthy enough to show his stuff. He played just 44 AHL games (8-3-11) last season and has made 11 appearances (0-2-2) this season.
There are some signs of progress in terms of even strength outscoring.
| Year | Pts-Game | Shots-Game | Goal Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2022-23 |
0.25 |
1.25 |
12-28 (30 pct) |
|
2023-24 |
0.17 |
.92 |
3-2 (60 pct) |
When Savoie is at his best the shot volume will be high and the goals will come in bunches. He did get power-play chances (three goals with the man advantage) a year ago, but this season he has played at times on the second unit.
Savoie needs reps, needs to stay healthy and to find the groove with his shot. The Condors have several young players (Bourgault, Petrov) in the same spot and all are gifted shooters. As a pure sniper, Savoie might be the best of the bunch. He needs to be in the lineup every game, to unleash his shot and find success.
He has the skill to play in the NHL.
No. 12 (6) RW Tyler Tullio, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
This year’s top 10 is the story of scoring slumps and injuries among Condors forward prospects. Tyler Tullio was hurt during preseason and saw just one game with the big club before the injury.
His skill set is a little different than Bourgault, Petrov and Savoie, with Tullio being a middle-six forward should he make the NHL in time. Although his offensive ceiling may not be as high as the other Condors forwards inside the top 10, his awareness without the puck and familiarity with the 200-foot game may bode well as his pro career moves along.
Tullio’s rookie season in Bakersfield (2022-23) saw him excel as an even-strength outscorer (35-30) and outscore more prominent prospects at even strength (10-11-21 in 63 games). His return will help the organization’s depth but could squeeze another forward prospect in the process.
No. 13 (NR) RC Matt Copponi, Merrimack College (NCAA)
The Oilers’ last pick at the 2023 draft was centre Matt Copponi. He stood out for one major reason: His offence (14-15-29 in 37 Hockey East games for Merrimack College) suggested he was a legit prospect. He posted those numbers at 19, and it was his sophomore season.
Copponi arrived in college hockey at 18 and then spiked at 19. Why he wasn’t selected before No. 216 in the 2023 draft isn’t obvious based on his numbers. He is undersized (5-foot-11) but the production was strong and he clearly took a major step forward.
Copponi is a smaller forward and he is not a burner. Scouting reports have him with average hands, despite the offence. His performance as a junior in 2023-24 offers a chance to see what he can do as a veteran performer at the NCAA level.
So far, Copponi is delivering at more than a point per game (3-13-16 in 14 games) and is a scoring leader on his team. Copponi is some time from pro hockey, but he is already a player of interest in the system.
No. 14 (NR) LD Cam Dineen, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
Cam Dineen came over from the Coyotes in the deal that sent Kesselring to Arizona.
He’s a puck-moving defenceman who has shown impressive ability with the puck on his stick. So far this season, Dineen has 4-3-7 in 14 games boxcars and that includes two markers on the power play. He is 8-7 on-ice goals at even strength and has been playing a feature role with rookie Max Wanner.
There is some chaos in his game. It is unclear where Dineen ranks on the recall list; that will depend on what the Oilers need. He has shown a wider range of skills than implied by his scouting report on draft day. Whether that gets him NHL time ahead of Markus Niemelainen, Ben Gleason and others is another matter.
No. 15 (NR) RC Jayden Grubbe, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
The Oilers made a spring trade for Jayden Grubbe, who projects to become a No. 4 centre or better in the NHL. Armed with size (6-foot-3, 200 pounds) and two-way acumen, he is being asked to make the leap from junior hockey to AHL regular this season.
Grubbe is 4-3 on-ice goals at even strength so far this season and 2-1-3 points in the first 14 games of his pro career with Bakersfield. He currently leads Condors rookie scorers, a shocking stat considering Petrov is so highly regarded.
Questions about Grubbe include foot speed and his final position in the pro game. If he can survive as a centre, his value will be much higher. If he can post even some offence, Edmonton will have made a solid acquisition with this player.
His speed may be the deciding factor. He is a bigger player but can get around. If he can improve enough, as was the case in recent years with Desharnais, Grubbe should have an NHL career.
Markus Niemelainen has NHL tools but may not get another extended opportunity in Edmonton. (Christopher Mast / NHLI via Getty Images)
No. 16 (10) LD Markus Niemelainen, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
Markus Niemelainen is NHL-ready and plays a steady, shutdown game. His on-ice goal share at even strength this season (6-5) is solid, as it was one year ago (18-17) in the AHL and NHL (10-8) with the Oilers.
He is a big (6-foot-6, 203 pounds) defender who is a heavy hitter and has enough NHL experience (43 games) to be trusted for recall. Niemelainen is mobile, a plus skater for his size. It gives him an edge over other Condors defencemen (Wanner aside) as a prospect.
Niemelainen’s issue? The players ahead of him on Edmonton’s depth chart. Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm and Brett Kulak are all NHL veterans of note. Broberg is a more complete player and ahead of Niemelainen. It isn’t certain Niemelainen would be the first recall because there are some solid left-handed options in Bakersfield.
Niemelainen is also having injury issues, a result of the rugged style he plays. Niemelainen can play in Edmonton tomorrow, but opportunity may not come knocking this season.
No. 17 (NR) LD Ben Gleason, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
Ben Gleason was a major story at Oilers training camp and preseason in September. He played in six games and was impressive at five-on-five and also had a regular turn on the penalty kill. He got noticed because of his speed, impressive puck-moving ability and calm feet.
Back in Bakersfield, Gleason has continued his effective play. He is 6-5 on-ice goals at even strength and has 1-5-6 in 13 games with the Condors. He isn’t getting feature power-play time but is a prominent player in other parts of the game.
In terms of recall, Gleason would seem to be the most logical option based on his strong preseason performance with the Oilers. However, he isn’t a shutdown type and others are playing feature roles (power play) at the other end of the ice.
No. 18 (NR) LD Noel Hoefenmayer, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
Noel Hoefenmayer has a powerful shot from the point, plays a rugged game and appears to be fearless. He is a creative passer and can cover well.
That’s a fairly complete description of a pro defenceman.
There are several Condors defencemen ahead of him on this prospect ranking. Why?
Injuries are part of it, but Hoefenmayer is also a player without any extreme strengths. He is 5-5 on-ice goals at even strength, is 2-2-4 in 10 games and is often involved in the action one way or another.
There’s a chance he’s the best defenceman on this list among the group ranked 11-20 (and there are a lot of them). He is behind Dineen, Gleason and Niemelainen because nothing stands out in his game.
No. 19 (18) RD Phil Kemp, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
Phil Kemp appeared to be poised for an NHL appearance last spring. Kesselring, ahead of him on the AHL depth chart, was sent to the Coyotes in a deadline deal. That meant Kemp was an obvious recall option if the big club needed a right-handed defenceman.
Fast forward almost a year and young rookie Wanner is all the rage and Akey appears to be a big part of the future.
Kemp may not make an NHL appearance, but his numbers show he is a solid shutdown defenceman. His on-ice goal share this season is 6-6 (50 percent), after last season’s 51-41 (55 percent) goal share. He’s a big defender (6-foot-3, 212 pounds) with average speed and sneaky offence.
He is a fringe NHL player looking for an opportunity.
No. 20 (19) LD Luca Munzenberger, New Hampshire (NCAA)
Luca Munzenberger has size (6-foot-2, 190), can close a gap quickly and plays an intelligent game. He is also an excellent skater, a key part of his skill set and the main reason for the ranking.
He is a difficult player to track from college because offence isn’t part of his game. He has just eight assists in 67 career NCAA games, and zero points in seven games this season.
We do know that his plus-minus has progressed by season from minus-17 to minus-9 to zero so far in 2023-24.
His skill set is ideal for shot and goal possession and his mobility makes him a strong candidate to thrive in the pro game.
The range of outcomes for his career run seems infinite. He could be in the NHL someday, or never play one game of North American pro hockey. His size, speed and improved defensive play have him here.
| Rank | Player | Career projection |
|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Xavier Bourgault |
Top-six NHL winger |
|
2 |
Beau Akey |
Top-six NHL defenceman |
|
3 |
Raphael Lavoie |
Complementary NHL scoring W |
|
4 |
Olivier Rodrgiue |
NHL goaltender |
|
5 |
Max Wanner |
Shutdown NHL defenceman |
|
6 |
Matvey Petrov |
Complementary NHL scoring W |
|
7 |
Maxim Berezkin |
Complementary NHL power winger |
|
8 |
Shane Lachance |
Complementary middle-six NHL PF |
|
9 |
Nikita Yevseyev |
Complementary top-six NHL D |
|
10 |
James Hamblin |
Fringe NHL checking centre |
|
11 |
Carter Savoie |
Fringe complementary NHL scoring W |
|
12 |
Tyler Tullio |
Fringe middle-six NHL winger |
|
13 |
Matt Copponi |
Fringe NHL skill centre |
|
14 |
Cam Dineen |
Fringe NHL puck-moving defence |
|
15 |
Jayden Grubbe |
Fringe NHL checking centre |
|
16 |
Markus Niemelainen |
Fringe shutdown NHL defence |
|
17 |
Ben Gleason |
Fringe NHL puck-moving D |
|
18 |
Noel Hoefenmayer |
Fringe NHL D with complete skill set |
|
19 |
Phil Kemp |
Fringe NHL defensive D |
|
20 |
Luca Munzenberger |
Fringe NHL defensive D |
(Photos of Xavier Bourgault, Olivier Rodrigue and Matvey Petrov: Darcy Finley / NHLI via Getty Images, Perry Nelson / USA Today and Larry MacDougal / AP)