Lowetide: How the Edmonton Oilers are undergoing a changing of the guard on defence

After several years of featuring veteran Darnell Nurse as the top defensive option for the Edmonton Oilers, the Nurse and Cody Ceci pairing is being supplanted by the Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard duo.

If it continues, and has success, it opens up several questions for the organization.

How long was Nurse part of the top pairing? Is this a time to contemplate moving Nurse and his contract? How long can Ekholm take on the big minutes? Why is the Ekholm-Bouchard pairing being deployed as the top pair now? Is it incumbent on management to find Nurse an upgrade for his partner?

Here are the answers.

Nurse and the top pairing

Nurse played his rookie season in the same year that Connor McDavid was a freshman. Leon Draisaitl didn’t qualify as a rookie, due to his half-season with the Oilers in 2014-15, but in actual fact, the three men had their first NHL impact in 2015-16.

Here are McDavid’s top partners since his rookie season. Playing big minutes with 97 annually means top pairing minutes due to the quality of competition.

All numbers five-on-five via Natural Stat Trick 

Nurse has been the best option for Edmonton while McDavid has been on the ice for most of his career. The devastating injury to Oscar Klefbom had an impact, but Nurse’s speed, size, rugged play and ability to impact the game defensively put him at the front of the line.

Even when Adam Larsson led in McDavid ice time in 2018-19, Nurse was the top left-handed option.

Things have changed this year. Bouchard leads in five-on-five ice time with the captain, and Ekholm is next in line. Nurse leads the way in goal share, though.

All numbers five-on-five via Natural Stat Trick 

Nurse is on track to play significantly less with McDavid this season, but the results are splendid when they are together (10-6 goals).

Bouchard makes the most sense as an option because of his terrific passing ability. Ekholm has proven to be a fine partner, both after the trade deadline a year ago and this season now that he’s completely healthy.

Early in 2023-24, both Ekholm and Bouchard struggled, but the performance lately is a big reason for Edmonton’s success. In their last 10 games together, with McDavid’s line on the ice five-on-five, the tandem is 8-5 goals (62 percent).

Expected goals are past 70 percent when the three men are on the ice together in the last 10 games. Transcendent.

Puck IQ

The Ekholm-Bouchard pairing, with the McDavid line, spends much of its time playing against elites. That’s a great spot for any tandem, as McDavid floats all boats in terms of outscoring. Nurse has benefited for many years from the phenomenon.

This year, Nurse leads the defence in time on ice versus elites at five-on-five. Puck IQ has not yet published the “with or without you” data but the Natural Stat Trick totals form a reasonable proxy for the deployment of pairings with McDavid.

Bottom line: Bouchard with Ekholm is the top pairing because of time spent with McDavid, but Nurse leads the way (slightly) in overall ice time versus elites. This is significant information.

That would include many McDavid-Nurse minutes, but total time together (119 minutes) will also include minutes against lesser players.

Nurse’s 190 minutes this season versus elites includes significant time away from the No. 1 line. We know this to be true by combining the Natural Stat Trick total minutes with the Puck IQ intel.

Here are the totals.

All numbers five-on-five via Puck IQ

There’s plenty to unpack here (Puck IQ is the most valuable publicly available site for NHL data), including a splendid result with Ekholm and Bouchard on the ice with McDavid. They have the role based on results; that is inarguable.

Nurse (and Ceci) are playing huge numbers against elites, and many of those minutes are without the top line.

Nurse and Ceci have fewer offensive zone starts than the Ekholm-Bouchard pairing when playing against top opponents.

What’s the takeaway?

Let’s answer those questions.

How long was Nurse part of the top pairing?

For six seasons, over half of his career, Nurse was the top left side option with McDavid at five-on-five. In five of those seasons, he was the de facto No. 1 defenceman on the club, playing the big minutes with the No. 1 line.

This season is the first since 2016-17 where Nurse is being used in a different role.

Is this a time to contemplate moving Nurse and his contract?

Nurse has a no-movement clause that doesn’t relax until June 1, 2027. At that time, the player will submit a 10-team list.

Ekholm has surpassed Nurse this year, but is five years older and has already had injury issues during his brief time as an Oilers player.

Nurse is durable and is having another strong season, albeit in a different role. Despite a massive contract he will not be able to cover (Nurse is not an offensive driver), the Oilers have no one currently or coming through the system to replace him as a rock on the blue line.

How long can Ekholm take on the big minutes?

Ekholm is very capable and has been durable over his career. His injury this year serves as a reminder that even top-flight defencemen erode from the heavy work in the NHL.

He is at 770 games, and the 1,000 mark often marks a downturn for a quality defenceman. That’s about three seasons away.

Why is the Ekholm-Bouchard pairing being deployed as the top pair now?

Bouchard has matured and that allows the team to take full advantage of his exceptional vision and outlet passing. His shot is also a useful weapon, and he patrols the blue line expertly. Ekholm is a key contributor, but Bouchard is the payload.

Is it incumbent on management to find Nurse an upgrade for his partner?

Yes. If the emergence of Ekholm-Bouchard meant an easing of time against elite competition, then Ceci would be more than adequate in the role.

As it is, Nurse has played more minutes against elites than any other defenceman on the Oilers.

If the Oilers are to win the Stanley Cup with Nurse playing the most minutes versus elites, and doing it without McDavid’s line as part of his primary unit, upgrading on Ceci is vital.

(Photo of Mattias Ekholm and Darnell Nurse: Jonathan Kozub / NHLI via Getty Images)

Originally Appeared Here