In most offseasons, making the call on a team’s restricted free-agent list is easy.
For the Edmonton Oilers, with a new general manager arriving in before next season, things could be different.
Now that we’re through the trade deadline, it’s a good time to make the call on this year’s RFA talent.
In Ken Holland’s time as general manager, the RFA decisions have run the gamut. When he arrived, the big name was Tobias Rieder, who had already been not qualified publicly by Bob Nicholson.
Last year, Holland made the decision to trade Klim Kostin, a wildly popular RFA who was used to offload the Kailer Yamamoto contract.
By comparison, the new general manager will have a relatively easy summer. Here’s the group.
The locks to return
Dylan Holloway
Holloway brings speed, forechecking, aggressive play and the ability to play centre or wing. He’s young (22), over 200 pounds and works hard. Offence is the concern, but there’s zero doubt he’ll play in the NHL for years to come. Edmonton has six forwards on the NHL roster who will reach free agency this summer. Expect Holloway to slide in to a bottom-six role, and if he finally arrives offensively, he could play higher in the lineup. Holloway has scored at lower levels, including a goal on Friday night in his AHL return, so an offensive spike isn’t a pipedream. He’s enjoying a successful return to the Condors, but appeared to be clipped by Colorado Eagles goaltender Ivan Prosvetov and missed the last portion of the second and all of the third period on Saturday night.
James Hamblin
Hamblin is found money and a lock to return to the Oilers. An undrafted centre best described as a utility player, Hamblin can play in the NHL on a depth line and provide several important skills. In limited minutes during 31 games with the Oilers this season, his line had the edge in shots, goals and expected goals. He’s a fine forechecker, quick enough to mark his man in the NHL and solid depth for a team that needs it. Hamblin is undersized (5-foot-9, 185 pounds) and isn’t going to score enough to stay in the NHL, but at the very least gives the Oilers a substantial AHL centre. If he ever figures out a way to post offence, Hamblin could have a career in the NHL. Hamblin is currently injured, but could be back in the Bakersfield lineup in the coming week, according to Ryan Holt, play-by-play broadcaster for the Condors.
Olivier Rodrigue
Rodrigue is on a two-year run of excellent results in the AHL. He has emerged as a legit NHL goaltending prospect, the second in a row (Stuart Skinner). He is waiver eligible and it’s possible the organization looks to move him in the summer. Rodrigue is among the top 10 AHL goalies in save percentage at this time. He was in no-man’s land at the beginning of the 2022-23 season and is building a quality resume. The Oilers have another goalie drafted and developed through the system. That’s breaking news.
Likely to return
Carter Savoie
Savoie was a fourth-round selection but raised hopes with an outstanding college career with the Denver Pioneers. In his two AHL seasons, injuries have had a big impact on Savoie and the organization hasn’t seen him at his best. Savoie’s 14 goals in 88 AHL games is a disappointing result after almost two seasons, but he hasn’t been healthy. His even-strength goal share as a rookie in the AHL (12-28, 30 percent) saw a major regression (20-8, 71 percent) this year. It’s likely the Oilers sign him in order to get a better look next season. Injuries are becoming the main story in Savoie’s pro career.
Cam Dineen
Dineen was acquired from the Arizona Coyotes at the deadline last year and is having a positive impact on the organization. He’s often paired with rookie Max Wanner on defence and the pairing has been successful. At even strength, Dineen is above 50 percent despite playing feature minutes with a rookie. Offensively, he’s on fire in recent games (1-10-11 in his most recent nine games) and is a big part of the Condors’ defence. He’s likely to return, although NHL time is a distant bell due to the nature of the depth chart.
Possibly gone
Philip Broberg
Broberg has size, speed and a resume that tells us he’s done everything required for a full shot at the NHL. The Oilers didn’t trade him at the deadline, but have three signed left-handed defencemen (Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, Brett Kulak) who don’t reach free agency for two years or more. Broberg is a candidate for trade this summer. The new general manager may deal Broberg for a right-handed defender who can slide in behind Evan Bouchard for the 2024-25 season and beyond; new management may also see significant cap savings in retaining Broberg and sending away a veteran. Smart teams never send away top-10 picks before they know what they can deliver.
Raphael Lavoie
Lavoie is arbitration eligible and it’s possible both team and player decide this young scorer needs a second opinion. On the surface, he’s an ideal prospect for the organization. Lavoie has size (6-foot-4, 215 pounds) and is a pure goal scorer (24 in 48 games this AHL season) but he has played just seven NHL games in his four pro seasons. A right-handed winger who is a first-shot scorer would seem ideal for the organization, and there are many forwards on the big club without a contract for 2024-25. Lavoie could possibly occupy one of those spots. The organization has handled him in much the same way as Tyler Benson, and that’s a tell.
Noel Hoefenmayer
Hoefenmayer was an interesting addition during the summer. He signed his first NHL contract with Edmonton, bringing a rugged style, good defence and a booming shot to the organization. Injuries have impacted Hoefenmayer, and the depth chart at left defence is so strong that opportunities for feature minutes have been rare. His AHL even-strength goal share (just under 50 percent) lags slightly behind other Bakersfield defencemen. Hoefenmayer is 25 and may seek a team with fewer lefty blue for his next contract.
Ryan Fanti
Fanti has suffered injuries at the start of his pro career but is progressing. His season-over-season save percentage (.894 to .922) with the Fort Wayne Komets (ECHL) suggests he is ready for the next step in Bakersfield. Fanti is spiking currently with strong performances. Calvin Pickard is a free agent this summer, Jack Campbell could get bought out and Rodrigue is waiver eligible. Edmonton has no goalies turning pro from previous drafts, so Fanti may get a contract offer from the Oilers.
Gone for good
Edmonton has so few players turning pro (Brady Stonehouse from junior, possibly a couple of draft picks playing in college) it’s possible all return.
The new manager will arrive to a minor-league system that has an alarming number of players who are no longer in their entry deals.
The Holland era involved trading picks and prospects every deadline and it has taken its toll.
As it stands, next season’s Condors could have just eight players in entry deals: Wanner, Stonehouse, Xavier Bourgault, Carl Berglund, Jayden Grubbe, Matvey Petrov, Tyler Tullio and Jake Chiasson.
The Oilers have turned the minor-league system into a feeder for the NHL team. It is stocked with men in their mid-20s and early 30s who can play in the NHL as plug-and-play replacements.
The danger comes in not developing young, inexpensive payers who can step into the lineup and move the needle. Recent examples are Skinner, Bouchard and Ryan McLeod.
Edmonton needs more prospects. Chances are all of these men are signed because none of them are being pushed. New management would be wise to walk some of the older Condors who are coming up on unrestricted free agency.
There’s much work to do. There is quality in these RFAs, and most will return.
(Photo of Philip Broberg: Stephen R. Sylvanie / USA Today)