Suggesting the Edmonton Oilers have a problem at centre is a difficult sell. The club boasts the best player in the game (Connor McDavid) at the position and by any measure Leon Draisaitl is among the very best of the NHL players in the group just below the Oilers captain.
Beyond that ridiculous 1-2 combination, the team also employs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He is a 12-year veteran who has played much of his career in the middle, although his impact season in 2022-23 saw him spend most of his time on the wing.
Young Ryan McLeod completes the set. He is an emerging talent with plus speed and plenty of room to grow in all areas.
So, what’s the problem?
It begins with the magic created when Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are on the ice together. It’s so attractive that every coach since McDavid’s arrival in 2015 finds the combination irresistible.
Here are the totals for McDavid-Draisaitl and the two men as solo centres over the past three seasons:
| Player | Minutes | Goal Pct | Goals-60 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1105 |
59.9 |
4.45 |
|
|
2469 |
55.3 |
3.16 |
|
|
2360 |
52.1 |
2.9 |
|
|
4729 |
45.6 |
2.04 |
All numbers five-on-five
The McDavid-Draisaitl duo has a tremendous goal share and scoring rates. The temptation to run them together starts at the anthem, and reaches fever pitch late with the game on the line.
The popularity of McDavid-Draisaitl
The two top centres have played for four different coaches. The percentage of time with and without for each coach is revealing.
| Coach | Together | 97 away from 29 | Pct Together |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Todd McLellan |
1272 |
2352 |
35 |
|
Ken Hitchcock |
321 |
713 |
31 |
|
Dave Tippett |
1134 |
1593 |
42 |
|
Jay Woodcroft |
524 |
1378 |
28 |
|
Woodcroft 2021-22 |
55 |
539 |
9 |
|
Woodcroft 2022-23 |
469 |
839 |
36 |
All numbers five-on-five
Oilers head coaches as a group migrate to the power of 97 and 29 often. The scoring and outscoring numbers are simply too enticing.
Jay Woodcroft stayed away from using the two men together when first brought to the NHL in February 2022. However, last season, the 97-29 creep was pronounced and Woodcroft’s 36 percent deployment for 2022-23 ranks behind only Dave Tippett’s extreme usage.
How much does a coach combine the two men in the playoffs? Here are the totals for each postseason:
| Year | Together | 97 away from 29 | Pct together |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2017 playoffs |
116 |
97 |
54 |
|
2020 playoffs |
6 |
52 |
10 |
|
2021 playoffs |
83 |
20 |
81 |
|
2022 playoffs |
157 |
126 |
55 |
|
2023 playoffs |
96 |
106 |
48 |
All numbers five-on-five
Woodcroft’s two playoff runs have featured McDavid-Draisiatl about 50 percent of the time.
Why? In a playoff game, the value of a one-goal lead is massive. No one can blame a coach for trying to use his magic centres together in an effort to secure an edge. Remember, these are five-on-five numbers, power-play totals are not included in this look at the two men and their minutes.
What is the solution?
Woodcroft’s coaching has helped the Oilers organization. The club has drafted and developed McLeod recently, with Dylan Holloway a possible option at pivot in the year to come.
Edmonton has reportedly invited Sam Gagner to training camp on a PTO and Devin Shore keeps showing up in photographs with Oilers players getting ready for the season.
Since arriving in Edmonton, general manager Ken Holland has attempted to solve the centre position with external solutions several times.
Each year, the level of quality increases.
In 2019-20, Holland’s first season, the fixes were Riley Sheahan and Gaetan Haas. In 2020-21, Shore and Kyle Turris were imported.
For the 2021-22 campaign, Derek Ryan offered the team a real solution. Colton Sceviour and (at the deadline) Derick Brassard were also given auditions.
Last year, Holland signed Mattias Janmark in the offseason and took a full swing (Nick Bjugstad) at the deadline.
When push comes to shove, every coach in the McDavid era puts the two elite talents together in important moments, and doubles down in the playoffs.
The solution for Holland? Aiming even higher at the deadline (or before) in an effort to find a solution.
How expensive of a solution? Assuming McDavid-Draisaitl and (say) Connor Brown occupy the No. 1 line, it would fall to Nugent-Hopkins, McLeod and the veteran acquired during the season to share the available minutes.
Here are the numbers for each centre, when playing the position, during the 2022-23 season. All totals exclude time spent with McDavid and or Draisaitl:
| Player | Minutes | Goal-Pct | Goals-60 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
579 |
53.2 |
2.59 |
|
|
484 |
55.8 |
2.98 |
|
|
447 |
55.6 |
2.49 |
|
|
166 |
61.5 |
2.88 |
|
|
56 |
50 |
0.91 |
All numbers five-on-five
For the first time since McDavid arrived in 2015, the Oilers had outscoring centres (representing all four lines) all down the line. The club’s deadline deal for Bjugstad worked beautifully during the regular season. It had less impressive results in the playoffs, partly due to the coaching staff running McDavid and Draisaitl together.
The solution? Aim higher.
Who might be available?
A quick look at the 2024 free-agent centres gives Oilers fans some idea about possible targets ahead of the 2024 trade deadline.
Adam Henrique of the Anaheim Ducks is close to an ideal candidate. He carries a cap hit of $5.825 million, which could be problematic but is not insurmountable. Henrique plays 35 percent of his five-on-five time versus elites according to Puck IQ. His possession number relative to teammates is strong against all opponents, including elites. Henrique’s expected goal share five-on-five (45.4 percent) looks poor, but shines like a diamond (No.1) compared to other Ducks centres.
The perfect fit for Edmonton, based on handedness and quality, would be Elias Lindholm of the Calgary Flames. The rivalry between the teams, along with the stunning asset ask, would make that trade impossible from the Oilers’ end, but the depth up the middle McDavid-Lindholm-Nuge-McLeod represents would be overwhelming for any opponent.
Jason Dickinson of the Chicago Blackhawks would be another worthy target. He played 35 percent of his five-on-five time versus elite opponents a year ago, and despite the ‘Hawks poor goal share during those minutes Dickinson performed well overall.
Bottom line
There will be options at the trade deadline.
Holland can be certain Woodcroft will check down to the power duo at some point in the playoffs, and likely stay there. Last year’s totals versus Vegas Golden Knights in the playoffs are a must to avoid.
Woodcroft knows he can run McDavid-Draisaitl and it’s often worth a goal per game at five-on-five.
He tried to use Bjugstad in a vital role during the Vegas series, when McLeod would have been the better option. These are small sample sizes and the dice have no memory so the Oilers could play the same hand a year from now and win against the Golden Knights.
A better option than Bjugstad increases the Oilers’ chances. McLeod and Nugent-Hopkins offer support, but more is needed.
The dilemma has an answer. The problem is solved. Every coach runs McDavid-Draisaitl when things get tense.
Dilemma has given way to need.
Finding a veteran center at the deadline, who can play in the top-six, might be the key to winning it all.
(Photo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl: Justin Berl / Getty Images)