Oilers’ current winger depth signals promising future

An NHL roster is a living, breathing thing — even in the offseason.

Over five NHL seasons and five summers that followed, Ken Holland has retooled the entire Edmonton Oilers roster.

The most fascinating work has been on the wing.

Relying on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl for scoring and outscoring was the early template.

Holland’s approach early saw the signing of free agents who could bridge the gap to younger players taking on bigger roles. When those younger players didn’t develop as hoped or became too expensive to retain, Holland chose one predictable and unique path and was aided by a stroke of luck.

The predictable path: Signing top-end free agents like Zach Hyman and Evander Kane.

The unique wrinkle: Holland moved centres to the wing.

Then he got lucky.

The progression

The best way to show how much has changed since Holland arrived as general manager and the upgrades that have taken place is to list the opening night wingers for each of his five seasons as general manager.

It’s a rising tide.

In his first season in Edmonton, Holland’s skill line wingers featured a veteran European winger with no NHL experience (Joakim Nygard), an eroding scorer whose best days were well in the past (James Neal) and an enforcer who had good chemistry with Edmonton’s elite centres (Zack Kassian).

Only Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was truly worthy of a feature role opening night in 2019-20. Nugent-Hopkins, normally a centre in those years, survived the Holland purge.

He remains a quality player for the current team, with his best work (mostly over the last two seasons) on the wing. Whether Holland planned the position change or (more likely) the coaching staffs discovered Nuge was better there, the evidence is clear.

The Oilers had several young wingers who auditioned in these years, with both Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi spending time as productive options. As each man’s contract grew larger, Holland shipped them out in pursuit of players deemed as delivering more bang for the buck.

The only young player on an opening night skill line over these years who remains is Dylan Holloway. He meandered greatly from opening night 2022-23 to his current status as the winger on Draisaitl’s line but is regarded as a significant piece of the present and the future.

Scoring and outscoring

The Oilers as a team have improved over the last five years in the important five-on-five outscoring category.

This includes the skill lines (generally regarded as minutes with Nos. 97 and 29 on the ice) and the depth lines.

In 2019-20, with what can be charitably called a makeshift roster behind the big guns, the Oilers delivered a 47 percent goal share. That number was severe (38 percent goal share) when McDavid and Draisaitl were on the bench.

In the 2023-24 regular season, Edmonton was up to 56 percent goal share including all players, and the minutes without the captain and Draisaitl (49 percent) were much improved.

The offensive output from Edmonton’s wingers has improved in that time.

The improved depth allows coach Kris Knoblauch to elevate the hot hand, deploy a strong option when injuries hit one of the prominent wingers, and arrange his roster with men who have two-way acumen.

In 2019-20, Edmonton’s best player assisted on goals by seven unique players at five-on-five, tallying 26 assists. Beyond Kassian (11) and Draisaitl (8), only Josh Archibald (3) scored more than one goal for the Oilers while playing on the top line.

There was zero depth.

In the 2023-24 regular season, McDavid assisted on goals by 10 unique Oilers forwards at five-on-five, for a total of 43 assists.

The two winger sets, separated by five years, are worlds apart. Knoblauch had much stronger options during the 2023-24 season, and fans are seeing the quality and depth during the postseason across all four lines.

Lucky

They say you have to be lucky to be good, and the Oilers organization has been running a little of it during this playoff spring.

Henrique was a key deadline acquisition for Edmonton, but has been unable to play every game due to injury.

Holloway has stepped into the void and delivered exceptional play. During the playoffs, his scoring rate (1.24 goals-60) is off the charts and his outscoring (67 percent) is pristine.

Holloway is a complementary player, Draisiatl is driving the success of the line.

A player who can run with the impact centres has extreme value, especially considering Holloway is miles from full free agency.

The man who drafted Holloway, Tyler Wright, is long gone from the organization. Whatever his shortcomings, the spring blossoming of Holloway was a lovely parting gift.

Summary

Holland’s Edmonton roster will likely be handed over to another GM over the summer, but the improvements are obvious.

There are astute decisions (signing Hyman was a stroke of genius), some luck (Holloway basically replaced Brown, whose contract will be an offseason hurdle) and some bad luck (injuries to Henrique, Kane and others).

The future for the Oilers is bright as long as the impact centres can be retained.

Holloway could go the route of Yamamoto or Puljujarvi, but his size, speed and style are a better fit for this version of the Oilers than the group of young wingers who came before.

Next season’s roster is coming into view.

Hyman ($5.5 million) plus Nugent-Hopkins and Kane (both $5.125 million) is an expensive trio.

The organization was gifted a bona fide and inexpensive fourth winger in Holloway. His next contract will be around $1 million for 2024-25.

It may allow the new general manager to sign Henrique to improve the team’s quality, depth and balance.

The wingers on the current roster represent a major upgrade over five years ago. Long-term contracts, buyouts, performance crashes and young players not developing made it a most difficult road.

Strong talent evaluation, from Hyman to Holloway, has Edmonton’s fortunes looking up on the wings.

Criticism of Holland’s path to this place has been severe since 2019, most of it warranted.

If the Stanley Cup arrives this spring, his legacy will be written far differently than it would be today.

Winning changes everything.

(Photo of Zach Hyman: Jerome Miron / USA Today)

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