On The Oilers, The World Juniors, And The High Cost Of Going "all In"

Breadcrumb Trail Links

Published Dec 26, 2023 • Last updated 3 hours ago • 8 minute read

Familiar scenes like this will unfold in the days to come, as the 2024 World Junior Championship gets underway. Photo by Ian Kucerak /Postmedia

It’s that time of year again, folks. It’s Boxing Day and with it the traditional puck drop on a couple of annual hockey traditions: the Spengler Cup in Davos, Switzerland, and the IIHF World Junior Championship, hosted this year in Gothenberg, Sweden. The former, involving European professional club teams plus Canada, is labelled 2023 because it’s a 6-day puck festival that always ends on New Year’s Eve. The latter stretches through until Jan 05 so is the 2024 version.

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Of the two, it’s the World Junior that attracts more attention, especially in this country. Stands to reason that diehard fans of a club like Edmonton Oilers are keener to see the Ghosts of Oilers Future who typically can be found at the World Junior than the Ghosts of Oilers Past that tend to populate the Spengler.

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Alas, at WJC2024 there are no future Oilers to be found. Not one.

Thing is, to have one of your prospects playing in the World Juniors you need to have drafted him first. Which is one way to monitor a team’s short-term drafting record. Only players from the past two drafts — and not even all of those selected — remain young enough to qualify for the U-20, whose players will all have birthdays in 2004 or later.

The draft site FC Hockey provides a detailed list of (by my count) 101 drafted players participating in this season’s event, led by Buffalo and Arizona who have 7 each. Stands to reason, both clubs have had a ton of draft picks in recent times. The Coyotes have been collecting picks for fun, having made 22 selections the past two years, no fewer than 14 of those in the first three rounds. The Sabres? 19 and 8 respectively.

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The other end of the rainbow? Only two NHL clubs will have no representation at WJC2024: Colorado Avalanche and your Edmonton Oilers.

That too stands to reason. Both clubs sent away plenty of picks, especially in the most recent two drafts, in their pursuit of the Stanley Cup. Each organization had just 7 draft picks in the two years combined, just 2 of those in the first three rounds.

Major difference being that in the case of the Avalanche, it worked. Trades involving future assets were used to acquire key players like Artturi Lehkonen and Josh Manson who played significant roles in Colorado’s drive to the Stanley Cup in 2022. Mission accomplished.

The Oilers meanwhile set themselves up for a couple of playoff runs, but no cigar to this point.

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The list is a short enough list to itemize. The Oilers started out with seven draft picks in each year.

2022

First round #29 “traded down” for #32 in a deal that sent two future Edmonton draft picks (2024 third, 2025 second) plus Zack Kassian to Arizona in exchange for cap relief. The Coyotes selected defenceman Maveric Lamouruex who will represent Canada in the World Juniors.
#32 Reid Schaefer was selected by Edmonton with the downgraded pick. Born on 2003 Sep 21, Schaefer was a “late birthday” and like some 30% of his draft mates has aged out of the 2024 World Juniors. Doesn’t much matter, he was traded by the Oilers this past February in a package for stalwart defenceman Mattias Ekholm so any rooting interest in the player is rendered academic at this point.
Second rounder was dealt to Montreal in 2022 March as part of a package for defenceman Brett Kulak, still an Oiler after signing a subsequent extension. Montreal used that #62 pick to select defenceman Lane Hutson, a big-time prospect who will be representing USA at WJC2024. Fair to say that’s a trade the Habs would make again.
Third rounder was dealt to Chicago in 2021 June as part of a package for defenceman Duncan Keith, who retired after one season in Edmonton. Chicago used the pick #94 to select defence prospect Jeremy Langlois.
Fourth rounder was dealt to New Jersey in 2021 April (late deadline that year) for defenceman Dmitry Kulikov, who left as an unrestricted free agent the following summer. NJD selected d-man Charlie Leddy at #126.
Pick #158 was retained. Oilers selected G Samuel Jonsson, who has a 2003 December birthday and is aged out.
#190 was used on D Nikita Yevseyev. He’s a 2004 so young enough to play in the current WJC. Only problem is, he’s Russian, and his entire country has been disinvited from IIHF events.
#222 was used on C Joel Maatta, a third-time-draft-eligible who turned 20 the day before the Draft. So, he’s out too.

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Summary: of the four players the Oilers drafted, all are ineligible to play in the current U-20 event, three by age and one by nationality. The only three that remain in the system were all selected below #150, which represents the “faint hope” section of the draft.

The picks in Rounds One through Four were all traded for NHL defencemen, with Schaefer being dealt after being drafted. Interestingly, all four teams who acquired a pick from the Oilers subsequently used it to draft rearguards themselves. Replenish the supply chain and all that. Edmonton has Ekholm and Kulak to show for their efforts, both current regulars on the d-corps.

2023

First round selection went to Nashville as part of the Ekholm package. Nashville used the #24 pick to select defender Tanner Molendyk, who made Team Canada but was sent home after suffering an injury in a pre-tournament game.
Oilers retained their second-round pick #56 and used it to pick promising rearguard Beau Akey, Alas, his season is already over due to major shoulder surgery. Welcome to the Oilers, son.
Third round pick was traded in 2023 March in a package with defence prospect Michael Kesselring in exchange for C Nick Bjugstad and D Cam Dineen. The ‘yotes picked RW Vadim Moroz with the #88 pick. Bjugstad has since departed Edmonton as an unrestricted free agent, back to Arizona as it turned out. Only Dineen, 25, remains in the Oilers system, a regular on the Bakersfield blueline with limited NHL prospects.
Fourth rounder #120 went to Philadelphia in 2022 March for veteran forward Derick Brassard, who left as an unrestricted free agent a year before that draft pick even came due. Philly chose LW Alex Ciernik, who will represent Slovakia at WJC2024.
Fifth rounder #152 went to New York Rangers in a 2023 May trade that landed prospect C Jayden Grubbe on Edmonton’s negotiation list. The Oilers have since signed the player and he is now a rookie pro in Bakersfield.
Oilers used the #184 pick on netminder Nathan Day who meets the age classification but was not in the mix for Team Canada.
Edmonton selected C Matt Copponi at #216. Like Maatta the year previous, Copponi had already turned 20 by his draft day.

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Summary: Edmonton drafted just three players, and just one in the top 180. That being Akey, who is out for the season.

The first, third and fourth round picks were all expended in deadline deals, of whom only Ekholm remains. The fifth rounder was involved in a very different kind of swap, not so much a “future for present” type deal as a “future for nearer-future” whose appeal included the fact the acquired player, Grubbe, was ready to turn pro this season. But by definition, no World Junior for him either.

Meanwhile, for the second draft in a row two players selected with picks Edmonton traded away were selected to represent their countries in the upcoming showcase.

Was it worth it?

No Cup to this point, so no, not yet. The Oilers acquired a couple of guys helping the club today in Ekholm and Kulak with both under contract through 2026. The final chapter remains to be written, even as the book can be closed on the likes of Keith, Kulikov, Bjugstad and Brassard. Strangely, of that sextet only Keith came at full cap dollar, meaning in all other cases, additional assets were expended to entice trading partners to retain salary. It’s an unforgiving business, especially in the salary cap era.

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Not surprisingly, Oilers GM Ken Holland has collected his share of critics along the way. He’s now developed a lengthy track record of borrowing from the future to solve roster weaknesses and salary cap constrictions in the shorter term.

Plenty of arrows in those quivers. Were the right players acquired at the right price? Depends on how happy Oil fans are with regular playoff appearances and a handful of series wins. To many of those critics the answer is clearly “not happy enough” and it’s hard to argue with that.

The one area where I would push back is the notion that Holland has been unwilling to go “all in” to maximize his team’s chances. The record speaks for itself: just one draft pick remains who was picked in the first four rounds from the last two years. The other seven, all dealt. A couple of decent prospects sent out. Trades made to clear cap space. Others acquiring veterans at a cap hit far below league minimum. In one highly-controversial case, cap space borrowed from next season to sign a player for this.

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Some creative moves in there in my view, even as they didn’t all work out as hoped. Of them all, the Ekholm transaction stands out as the biggest swing, and to this point, the most productive. It served to raise expectations, and in a good way.

The sad part is that for all his efforts to maximize his team again in 2023-24, Ken Holland’s crew enters the Christmas break in 27th place by points, in 23rd by percentage, and looking up at a whole lot of teams in the Western Conference playoff race. Among them, the Arizona Coyotes whose own development system is absolutely bulging with prospects, plenty of whom will be in display in the big tournament getting underway today. Oil fans have no such bounty of prospects to track and it stings, at least in the moment.

Oh well, at least there’ll be a couple of Ghosts of Oilers Past at the Spengler Cup. Come on, Joey LaLeggia! Let’s go, Colton Sceviour!