Today At His Media Conference, Edmonton Oilers Coach Kris Knoblauch, In The Blandest, Least Offensive And Least Personal Manner Problem, Brought Up The Single Biggest Bad Habit That Will Prevent The Edmonton Oilers From Winning The Stanley Cup If It's Not Changed. Asked By TSN's Ryan Rishaug For An Area Or Two That Need Improvement On The Team. "Probably The One Thing That The Coaches Find Is Defensive Details. I Think We've Given Up More Chances Of The Rush Than We'd Like To. I Know That Was A Point Of Emphasis When I First Got Here And We've Probably Slipped A Little Bit In That Area. Typically 5-on-5 Goals Are, Probably 45 Per Cent Of The Goals Come Off Line Rush Scored, So We Just Have To Tighten That Up. That's Usually Either "D" Pinching Or Forwards Not Backchecking." My Take 1. Bingo! Coach K Nailed It, In Particular When It Comes To Forwards Failed To Backcheck And Cover Onrushing Attackers Charging Into The Edmonton Defensive Slot To Cash In On Passes Or Rebounds. It's Been A Major Issue For Years. If Oilers Forwards Fails To Change This Bad Habit, The Team Will Never Win The Stanley Cup. Never.

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Cult of Hockey

Published Jan 06, 2024 • Last updated 45 minutes ago • 5 minute read

Oilers Flyers Edmonton Oilers’ Zach Hyman (18), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (93) and Leon Draisaitl (29) celebrate a goal against the Philadelphia Flyers during second period NHL action in Edmonton, Tuesday, Jan. 2, 2024. Photo by JASON FRANSON /THE CANADIAN PRESS

Game Day 36 Oilers vs Senators

Today at his media conference, Edmonton Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch, in the blandest, least offensive and least personal manner possible, brought up the single biggest bad habit that will prevent the Edmonton Oilers from winning the Stanley Cup if it’s not changed.

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Asked by TSN’s Ryan Rishaug for an area or two that need improvement on the team.

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“Probably the one thing that the coaches find is defensive details. I think we’ve given up more chances off the rush than we’d like to. I know that was a point of emphasis when I first got here and we’ve probably slipped a little bit in that area. Typically 5-on-5 goals are, probably 45 per cent of the goals come off line rush scored, so we just have to tighten that up. That’s usually either “D” pinching or forwards not back checking.”

My take

1. Bingo! Coach K nailed it, in particular when it comes to forwards failing to back check and cover on-rushing attackers charging into the Edmonton defensive slot to cash in on passes or rebounds. It’s been a major issue for years. And if Oilers forwards fails to change this bad habit, the team will never win the Stanley Cup. Never.

2. The Oilers are an outstanding attacking team, approaching the level of great attacking teams of the past such as the 1990s Pittsburgh Penguins, the 1980s Oilers and the 1970s Habs and Bruins. But Edmonton could not hold a lead in the playoffs last year mainly because the team kept getting outnumbered in the defensive slot, in large part because forwards had failed to adequately cover for d-men who had moved out of position, either by mistake or by design of the Oil’s systems.

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3. Video analysis by the Cult of Hockey shows that at even strength this year, Edmonton has created 205 rush chances leading to Grade A shots, with a subset of 102 being 5-alarm shots. Grade A shots go in on average 25 per cent of the time, 5-alarmers 33 per cent of the time.

The Oilers have scored 39 goals on even strength rush chances.

The opposition has had 149 Grade A shots off the rush at even strength, 75 of them 5-alarmers, but scored 47 goals on them.

That means Edmonton is getting 58 per cent of the Grade A shots on rushes, 68 per cent of the 5-alarm shots, but just 45 per cent of the goals.

Part of that disparity on goals for and against off the rush has to do with the opposition having superior goaltending on rush chances. That may change as Stuart Skinner’s game picks up and without leaky Jack Campbell in net. But neither Skinner nor back up Calvin Pickard are acrobatic goalies. Neither excels when it comes to thwarting one-timer shots on cross-seam passes, the kind of shot often seen on rush chances.

Edmonton’s best bet is to make a religion out of improving its defensive habits, with the forwards always, always, always hustling back and getting on the right side of their check on all opposition rushes.

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Right now that happens most of the time, but not all of the time. Almost every Oilers forward, from the bottom line attackers to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, needs to unthinkingly and without hesitation back check hard and effectively on every single opposition rush. Against Philadelphia this week, the Flyers scored only twice, but got both goals on rush chances with Oilers forwards moving slowly and ineffectually back to their own zone, in start of charging back hard.

I’ll go so far to say that if the Oilers continue to slack check, they won’t get past the second round of the playoffs. If they axe the slack check from their game and start to back check like the Stanley Cup depended on it, they will win the Stanley Cup. Because, for this team, this factor will determined their Stanley Cup fate.

4. Coach K’s comment brings to mind when Vegas forward Jonathan Marchessault spilled the beans on how Vegas took advantage of weak defensive coverage from the Oilers to beat them on slot chances. It’s a slightly different issue, in that these attacks occur as the opposing team was cycling the puck in the Edmonton zone, not rushing into it, but the same principle applies.

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Marchessault talked to Gene Principe of the Oilers in the second period of Game Six, having just scored three goals in the second period, giving Vegas a 4-2 lead heading into the third. Principe asked Marchessault what Vegas would need to do to hold on to the lead and eliminate the Oilers. And that’s when Marchessault dropped his truth bomb: “If we keep bringing pucks to the net, we know they play man-on-man in the d-zone, so we just have to beat our guy to the net, and we can get bounces there.”

The comment was no insult. It wasn’t meant to be damning. It was just telling like it is. Yet it could have not have cut deeper into what went wrong with the Oilers against Vegas.

Vegas realized that Edmonton was locked into a man-to-man defensive structure in the defensive zone. This system meant if Darnell Nurse was covering Reilly Smith, Nurse was to stick with Smith even if Smith ranged far out of the scoring zone in front of Edmonton’s net, even if he moved out of the offensive zone. It meant Oilers d-men like Nurse, Ceci and Mattias Ekholm were constantly drawn away from the front of the Edmonton net where Vegas was so deadly scoring. It meant less skilled defenders, most often the Edmonton centre ice men, had to fill that defensive void in front of the Edmonton net. One can sense this might not end well, correct?

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5. Projected line-up vs Senators:

Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
McLeod – Draisaitl – Foegele
Kane – Ryan – Janmark
Erne – Hamblin – Brown

Nurse – Ceci
Ekholm – Bouchard
Kulak – Desharnais

Skinner