Published Nov 10, 2023<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Last updated 17\u00a0minutes ago<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 10 minute read<\/span><\/p>\n The day after the Edmonton Oilers\u2019 latest and most demoralizing loss to date, all is quiet on the western front. For most of the day the top of the squad\u2019s Twitter feed simply said: \u201cThe <\/span>#Oilers<\/span> eight-game win streak against the Sharks was snapped with a 3-2 defeat at <\/span>@SAPCenter\u201d \u2014 about as gentle an interpretation as possible of the NHL\u2019s top offensive team of a season ago mustering just 2 goals against a hapless squad that allowed 10 in back-to-back games just last week.\u00a0 Or allowing 3 against a club that had reached that not-so-lofty total just once all season. With the loss, their fourth consecutive in regulation, the Oilers crashed into a tie for last overall with the Sharks with 5 points, though technically still in 31st due to a game in hand.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Advertisement 2<\/p>\n This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY<\/p>\n Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.<\/p>\n SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES<\/p>\n Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.<\/p>\n REGISTER TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES<\/p>\n Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n Not surprisingly, Oil Country is in an uproar. Many solutions are being offered, the common theme being \u201cDO SOMETHING!!!\u201d\u00a0 The default suggestion at times such as this being a change in the coaching staff, with the current situation summarized here<\/strong> by my Cult of Hockey colleague David Staples.<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n But there\u2019s been silence at the other end of the line. Silence from GM Ken Holland. Silence from President of Hockey Ops Jeff Jackson. Silence from owner Daryl Katz. The only whisper of management inaction in action comes from a reliable source near the team:<\/p>\n For the purposes of the current discussion, let\u2019s follow their lead, take a deep breath, and evaluate what it is the Oilers have in Jay Woodcroft.<\/p>\n Showing here just his time in the Oilers orgnanization, a relationship now in its ninth year. By the time he arrived here, he\u2019d had 3 years as a video coach with Ken Holland\u2019s Detroit Red Wings, then another 7 as an assistant under Todd McLellan in San Jose. Both clubs were highly successful.<\/p>\n Woodcroft arrived in Edmonton as part of the package when McLellan was hired by Peter Chiarelli in the weeks following the seminal event in the Oilers recent history: the draft lottery win that landed Connor McDavid<\/strong>. They had one outstanding season together in 2016-17 \u2014 bookended by the arrival of Adam Larsson to open the season and a career-wrecking injury to Andrej Sekera near its close. In between times the Oilers had their best defensive group in recent memory, backstopped by an outstanding campaign by Cam Talbot between the pipes. Up front, McDavid had a brilliant season copping both the Art Ross and Hart Memorial Trophies, and the supporting cast led by Leon Draisaitl <\/strong>was deep, strong, and healthy.<\/p>\n Advertisement 3<\/p>\n This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n After a big step backwards the following year, McLellan\u2019s coaching staff was disbanded, though Woodcroft landed on his feet when he accepted Chiarelli\u2019s offer to take the head coaching job with the Oilers top affiliate in Bakersfield. He had immediate success, made the playoffs twice, winning 3 playoff series and 1 \u201cchampionship\u201d in the truncated Pacific Division playoffs in the first post-COVID season. In his one one \u201cunsuccessful\u201d campaign, he developed 3 AHL rookies who now represent the core of the Oilers\u2019 youth group: goalie Stuart Skinner,<\/strong> offensive rearguard Evan Bouchard,<\/strong> defensive forward Ryan McLeod<\/strong>.<\/p>\n With the Condors cruising and the Oilers struggling in the 2021-22 campaign, Woodcroft finally got his big chance. In mid-February he along with his own right-hand man Dave Manson, got \u201ccalled up\u201d to replace Dave Tippett and Jim Playfair behind the Edmonton bench. The Oilers, still reeling from a 2-11-2 (!) slide in the weeks around Christmas, were on the outside looking in for a playoff spot so Holland fired his coach in-season for the first time in his quarter century as an NHL GM.<\/p>\n Headline News<\/p>\n Thanks for signing up!<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n Advertisement 4<\/p>\n This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n The squad took off, winning their first 5 games under the new bench boss and surging up the standings to second place in the Pacific. They followed that up with a thrilling 7-game series win over the L.A. Kings and an immensely satisfying 5-game ouster of the Calgary Flames before meeting their match in the ultimate Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche in the conference finals. While the continuing brilliance of McDavid and Draisaitl played a massive role, the innovative tactics of the new coaching staff received a share<\/strong> of the credit<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Woodcroft\u2019s Oilers continued to trend up in 2022-23, winning 50 games for the first time since 1986-87 and eliminating the Kings in Round 1 before again getting knocked out by the future Stanley Cup champion, this time the Vegas Golden Knights. For the first time, there were whispers of criticism of the staff. Still, it was another highly successful season, setting the stage for the \u201cStanley Cup or bust\u201d theme underlying the current season.<\/p>\n Which is where things have completely fallen off the rails for Jay Woodcroft, his players and indeed the entire Oilers organization. The club has struggled mightily out of the gate to the point that today, exactly a month since the season started, they stand an unthinkable 14 points out of THIRD place in the Pacific and 8 behind the 3 clubs tied for the last wild card spot in the West. Already, a deficit that will take months, not weeks, of solid hockey to surmount. If indeed it proves to be surmountable at all.<\/p>\n Advertisement 5<\/p>\n This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n So, did Woodcroft suddenly forget how to coach? Has he \u201clost\u201d his team? Or has he simply proven unable (so far) of turning around a slumping group which has been dealt a series of setbacks, some beyond anyone\u2019s control, others beyond the coach\u2019s. It wasn\u2019t he, for example, who chose to go with a streamlined 21-man roster because of salary cap restrictions. He was the one who made that work when all hands were healthy, morphing from a 12\/6 deployment of forwards and defencemen to 11\/7 depending on the circumstances of the day.<\/p>\n But early in 2023-24, good health has not been the team\u2019s friend. Twice (both games at Vancouver) they\u2019ve had to play a man short; on other nights players have had to play at less than 100%, among them:<\/p>\n Advertisement 6<\/p>\n This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n These are all facts on file, or at least observations based on such facts that have been revealed. The club is notoriously secretive about injuries, and not without reason.<\/p>\n Other players are not known to be hurt, but are in a funk. 3-time 50-goal man Leon Draisaitl <\/strong>has scored just once in the last 9 games, during which time the Oilers have won just once. Over the same span, 100-point scorer Ryan Nugent-Hopkins <\/strong>has tallied just 3 points. And in that same 1-7-1 run, the squad\u2019s record-setting powerplay has received just 3 goals from their devastating first unit that connected 89 times in 82 games a year ago. On nights like Thursday, when the PP went 0-for-4 including a full 2 minutes at 6v4 down the stretch, it can be a difference maker. The early offensive collapse has seen last year\u2019s top-scoring team lag in a 3-way tie for 27th in Goals For, down by 1.4 goals per game.<\/p>\n A similar crash has occurred at the defensive end. The squad that was solidly mid-pack a year ago is allowing more than a goal per game more this early season. Goaltending has been second-best on way too many nights, and defensive coverage a mess. This is where fingers can and have been pointed at the coaching staff. Their revised systems have landed on the group with a resounding thud based on both observation and results. The team has been absolutely exposed on the counter-attack, allowing 23 even-strength goals on the rush through 12 games.<\/p>\n Advertisement 7<\/p>\n This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n The coaches also come under scrutiny for everything from over-reliance on star players to under-reliance on the younger set to deployment in general. Indeed, a case could be made that the coaches have been mired in their own \u201cslump\u201d right along with the team.<\/p>\n Is it enough to warrant a house-cleaning a month into the season? Apparently 12 games of poor results is not quite enough, but a 13th might be. That is the knife edge that Jay Woodcroft and staff find themselves under, a shocking development in such a short span.<\/p>\n Bottom-line question for now is this: whatever happened to Oilers squad that was trending up, up, up in a season and a half under Woodcroft and company? On the one side, he have 120 (regular season) games worth of information of that up-and-coming group, vs. just 12 of the current down-and-outers. A 10:1 ratio of good sample to bad.<\/p>\n What\u2019s real, and what\u2019s temporary? Let\u2019s do a side-by-side comparison of some key indicators:<\/p>\n [Source<\/strong>]<\/p>\n NHL rankings over the periods in question highlight top-10 positions in green, top-5 in darker green, and bottom-5 in red. There is absolutely nothing in between those extremes.<\/p>\n Advertisement 8<\/p>\n This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n Over Woodcroft\u2019s first season and a half it was green all the way,: good underlying numbers, good goals share, good percentages at both ends of the rink. With a big enough sample size, process presages production.<\/p>\n Whereas early in the current campaign, the underlying numbers are as good or even better than in Woodcroft\u2019s first season and a half, but the percentages have completely crashed. In particular, PDO has cratered from 2nd to 32nd. Hey lookit! Points percentage has similarly crashed from 2nd to 31st.<\/p>\n Just 12 games into the season, the Oil have scored 14 fewer goals than expected at one end of the sheet, and allowed 14 more than expected at the other.<\/p>\n Fair to say the squad has failed the eye test in key moments, though the numbers indicate they are continuing to carry the play in the manner of a high-end NHL squad. This despite the health issues to key players noted above.<\/p>\n Of all the stats shown here, the most volatile are those percentages. I\u2019m not a betting man, but if I were I\u2019d put serious coin on that ugly 7.4% shooting percentage and that dreadful .860 save percentage both regressing hard. To put that .934 PDO in perspective, over last season\u2019s 82-game slate, the worst in the NHL was the .976 recorded by Columbus Blue Jackets. The 12-game sample shown here is simply unsustainable \u2026 and in a good way.<\/p>\n Advertisement 9<\/p>\n This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n Maybe the GM needs to figure out a way to find a different goalie than the one in whom he invested heavily in 2022, or maybe try some other alteration among the skaters. A number of players need to raise their games, from the mighty McDavid right on down.<\/p>\n Less than 2 years ago, a 2-11-2 slide greased the rails for the ultimate departure of Dave Tippett. Should a 2-9-1 start do similar for Jay Woodcroft? Maybe so, but there\u2019s plenty of evidence that to blame all this on the coach is an over-simplification.<\/p>\n My own take for what it\u2019s worth is that the organizational brain trust would be better served to err on the side of patience. Even today, with all of the early misfortune, the Oilers are considered to have a 51% likelihood of making the playoffs (source<\/strong>) despite the massive early points deficit. All is not lost.<\/p>\n But a win in Seattle on Saturday night sure would be a good sign. The margin for error has become slender indeed.<\/p>\n STAPLES: Out-of-touch Oilers may have cost Woodcroft his job<\/strong><\/p>\n LEAVINS: Game grades vs Sharks<\/strong><\/p>\n STAPLES: Are benchings the answer, and if so who should get the seat?<\/strong><\/p>\n McCURDY: Oilers lose horror show in Vancouver 6-2<\/strong><\/p>\n STAPLES: Drastic measures as Jack Campbell sent to AHL<\/strong><\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n Share this article in your social network<\/p>\n Comments<\/p>\n Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notifications\u2014you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings.<\/p>\n![\"Edmonton](\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/edmontonjournal\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/1767733163.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=j97I0FFUoYcCgAxB_NEJiw\" "\\"\\"")
Edmonton Oilers head coach Jay Woodcroft looks on during the second period of their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on November 6, 2023 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.<\/span> Photo by Derek Cain<\/span> \/Getty Images<\/span><\/p>\nArticle content<\/h2>\n
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<\/p>\nJay Woodcroft on the brink?<\/h2>\n
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<\/p>\nShould Woody stay or go?<\/h2>\n
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