Edmonton Oilers 2023-24 Season Preview: Playoff Chances, Projected Points, Roster Rankings

By Shayna Goldman, Dom Luszczyszyn and Sean Gentille

Throughout Connor McDavid’s career, the Oilers have found success in spite of themselves, mainly through his own singular greatness. What the franchise often built around him has been disappointingly far from enough to contend, though each year Edmonton gets closer and closer as he gets better and better.

That culminated in this moment: McDavid is at the peak of his powers with a supporting cast that’s finally strong enough to get him to the promised land. Could it be better? Sure. But the beauty of having The Best Player In The World is that it doesn’t have to be. A good supporting cast is good enough and the Oilers finally have that.

This looks like it’s finally Edmonton’s Year — the Oilers are the team to beat this season.

The projection

It was six years ago that the first edition of these previews on The Athletic landed with a grim forecast for an Oilers team fresh off what felt like a breakthrough 103-point season. There was expected pushback, but as fans know all too well, that forecast wasn’t grim enough.

The idea then: McDavid alone isn’t enough to make Edmonton a playoff lock, let alone a contender. No hard feelings, no bias — the rest of the team was just seriously lacking. For the Oilers to go on a serious playoff run, it was on the front office to build a capable enough supporting cast around McDavid. When that day came, they would get their flowers.

Slowly but surely, they got there. After hovering around 85 projected points for two seasons, the Oilers finally made the right strides toward relevance in 2021 — though McDavid reaching new heights helped too. In 2020-21, it was a projected 94-point pace. In 2021-22, it was 101 points. Last season, it was 100 points.

And now we’re here: 107 projected points, the second-highest mark in the league.

More important though is the number to the far right: 15 percent. That’s Edmonton’s chances of winning it all, the highest of any team by a considerable margin; five percentage points. The Oilers are not just a contender, they’re the Stanley Cup favorite, period.

As is usual for the Cup favorite, that still means Edmonton doesn’t win it all way more often than not, with the most likely scenario being a second-round exit.

After losing to the Stanley Cup champions in back-to-back seasons in the second or third round, that doesn’t feel like something the Oilers want to settle for this year.

For Edmonton, it’s finally Cup or bust.

Screenshot 2023 10 03 at 11.06.42 PM

Percentiles with the bar graphs are based on each player’s Offensive, Defensive and Net Rating relative to their time-on-ice slot, i.e. the first forward is compared to other first forwards only.

The strengths

The Oilers are the team to beat offensively. That’s their greatest strength, with a plus-54 rating that leads the league.

Edmonton’s blue line supports it, but its forward group really fuels it with a plus-45 rating that no one can stack up to.

Unsurprisingly, the top of the Oilers’ lineup has a lot to do with that. That starts with the best player in the world, McDavid, who is in a tier to himself in 1A.

McDavid’s coming off not just his best year, but one that stacks up across all of hockey — especially in this era. His 153 points stand at 15th all time in single-season scoring. Those who reached those heights before him all played in the ’80s and ’90s, a far different scoring level from today’s game, making it all the more impressive. It’s a point total that might’ve been even higher had his teammates finished on more of the chances he set up for them at five-on-five.

The Oilers’ No. 1 has always been an absolutely elite puck-mover. He’s one of the best at transporting the puck up the ice with possession to drive play and buy his teammates space. But this year there was a greater emphasis on how his shot-making ability has made him more of a dual threat than ever. The completeness in his game makes him even more of a force than before. It should come as no surprise that between his outright dominant ability to control play — that’s shined even more as the stakes increased during the playoffs — he’s the highest-rated skater in the league at a plus-35. And that’s not just his offense, either. His defensive game has rounded into form nicely over the last few years, turning him into a much more complete player.

What pushes Edmonton so high offensively is that it boasts not one, but two of the best creators in the game today.

Leon Draisaitl has always been an interesting player. Poor defense has dragged him down in the past. So too has an inability to carry his own line. But he’s added much more dimension to his game — he’s no longer just a lethal shot on the power play, but a dangerous passer as well. His playoff performances — both on one leg in 2022, and this past spring — have really upped his value, too. Down the stretch he started thriving at five-on-five again, an inspiring run that put a stamp on his standing as one of the league’s top five players.

The drawback is he doesn’t take on top defenders as much, especially when he’s not on a line with McDavid. And at his core in Edmonton, he’s still second fiddle to their true No. 1. But his dynamic offensive skill set makes him a massive threat that is impossible to ignore.

Having that along with McDavid gives Edmonton an abundance of high-end talent to lead the way — an extremely dangerous one-two punch. With a plus-24 Net Rating, he’s among the best No. 2 forwards in the league and ranks sixth overall. That’s why he’s consistent at 1B in this year’s Player Tiers alongside just two other forwards: Nathan MacKinnon and Auston Matthews.

In Zach Hyman, the Oilers have an excellent supporting player behind their elite centers. The contract seemed like a red flag initially to some (not us!) considering the term, but he’s proven to be a top-notch fit.

Being near someone like McDavid, or Matthews in Toronto, is going to raise a player’s value just by proximity. So it’s possible Hyman’s a bit overrated at a plus-14 Net Rating. But not every grinder can thrive alongside skill players and actually complement them. Hyman’s chippy efforts help facilitate plays and make life easier for his often superstar linemates.

Going back to his days in Toronto, he’s a superstar’s dream — the new Chris Kunitz. Hyman provides a similar impact to the one Sidney Crosby’s longtime winger used to have at his peak. That’s why he played so much with McDavid this last season. Whether it was on a line with Draisaitl or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, both trios rocked a 63-plus percent expected goal rate in their minutes. And some of the finishing that alluded Hyman last year dissipated, making him a more effective scorer as well.

Rounding out the top four in Edmonton is Nugent-Hopkins, who also stacks up really well for his position. That gives the Oilers elite talent at the top, and incredibly high-end supporting talent. The foursome’s value is fueled heavily of course by their historic power play, a cheat code that scored over 16 goals per 60 last year when together. Only one other player, Brayden Point in 2018-19, has been on the ice for more than 14 goals per 60 since 2007.

Nugent-Hopkins is an underrated part of that machine; he finished ninth in the league in scoring with 104 points. His impact at five-on-five leaves a lot to be desired and the likelihood of repeating his 100-point season feels low. But he’s still a very good player who deserves some credit for just how good that top unit is — even if he’s the third fiddle on it. That may goose up his plus-10 Net Rating a tad, but as a fourth forward he’s still well above what other teams can offer.

Finding strengths in the forward group after those four is a bit tougher and that leaves Edmonton looking a bit top heavy. The combined plus-84 Net Rating of the quartet ranks first in the league and the rest obviously doesn’t stack up. Still, there are some bright spots here and there. Evander Kane is slotted more appropriately for his skill set and is fine offensively as a team’s sixth forward — even if his defensive game has abandoned him. Warren Foegele is also a very solid depth forward who looked much better last season.

But maybe the most interesting supporting forward is Connor Brown, who doesn’t currently project to be a positive. He’s coming off a torn ACL that limited his 2022-23 campaign to just four games. There’s going to be some rust to shake off, but if he can get back up to speed, there’s the potential for him to be a very cost-effective addition for Edmonton.

At his best, Brown can be a disruptive utility player. That was on display in 2021-22 in Ottawa, when he was the team’s best forechecker, a positive on both ends of the ice and a good puck-mover. He’s more of a passer than a shooter, but can transition the puck up the ice to help set up scoring chances. That’s a skill set that should click in Edmonton, especially if he’s on the ice with McDavid, his former junior teammate. That should pump up his value closer to where Edmonton needs him to be as a fifth or sixth forward.

Just like their forward group, there are a lot of strengths at the top of the Oilers’ defense. That starts with Evan Bouchard, who is primed for a breakout season. He didn’t get off to the perfect start last year and didn’t take over the power-play unit as expected initially. But the Mattias Ekholm trade was a turning point of the season for him. The Oilers found the ideal partner for him, who helped him absolutely thrive at five-on-five. The two were basically the only blueliners who remembered how to play defense consistently when the postseason rolled around, too.

That trade also moved Tyson Barrie out of the picture and allowed Bouchard to capture the top spot on the power play. He hasn’t looked back since and it’s worth noting that the top power play somehow got better once Bouchard took over. From March onward, the top unit scored 17 goals per 60 during the regular season and 23 goals per 60 (!?) during the playoffs. With Barrie, they were just under 16. To his credit, Bouchard was a crucial part of that, too. In 33 games on the top unit, Bouchard scored 36 points, 23 of which were on the power play.

With Bouchard moving up and Ekholm in the fold, Nurse moved down to a more appropriate role for his skill set. Contract aside, he’s fine as a second-pair option. Realistically, he’s not an ideal No. 1 defenseman on a contender. The fact that he doesn’t have to be that now is good for him and the Oilers.

The last strength comes back in net with Stuart Skinner. The Oilers’ crease is far from perfect, considering Jack Campbell’s inconsistent first year in Edmonton (and his hefty contract). But Skinner impressed in his rookie season to earn the starting role. In 50 games played, he earned a .914 save percentage and saved 18.4 goals above expected which ranked 11th in the league. If he can build on that, whether it’s in a 1A role or as a true bona fide starter, that stability should help the team power forward.

The weaknesses

This looks like the most complete version of the Oilers in years, but there are still several flaws that could hold this team back. They have a very top-heavy roster that is heavily influenced by the success of the top power play. That’s not all the Oilers are, but it does leave a lot of holes lower in the lineup.

A lot of the team’s depth in the bottom six is on the weaker side. All six play fewer minutes than your average bottom-six player and that contributes to a low rating, but even by efficiency, they lack. Dylan Holloway’s projection isn’t kind, but it also overemphasizes his small bit of NHL experience (51 games). He has some potential and pedigree after being picked 14th in 2020, but the rest of the bottom six doesn’t leave as much room for optimism.

While most of these players are fine defensively, they lack offensively. Maybe that’ll be fine because the Oilers are so stacked at the top of the lineup, but it won’t be surprising if management has to look to the waiver wire or trade market to bolster the bottom six again ahead of the playoffs, either. Even though some of these forwards rate out pretty well in their own zone, most aren’t exposed to top forward competition — that’s generally reserved for the top of the lineup. That doesn’t seem to bother someone like McDavid, who can crush it no matter who he’s matched up against. But it wouldn’t hurt for Edmonton to strengthen its bottom six and try to open up its top offensive threat’s minutes as much as possible.

There is some question about how the lineup will shake out in the bottom six after deadline addition Nick Bjugstad departed as a free agent. It’s possible the team tries to roll with 11 forwards and seven defenders, as it often did midseason last year. The Oilers actually had better results below the surface in that formation compared to the standard 12 forwards and six defensemen. It doesn’t hurt to get McDavid and Draisaitl out on the ice more in the moment. But that’s probably not the configuration to run throughout the season, because the team risks burning out their stars too quickly when they need them fresh down the stretch. Plus, adding Vincent Desharnais into the mix doesn’t thread the needle much; he has his own weaknesses.

Rolling seven defensemen could help the Oilers continue to shelter Philip Broberg, who thrived in his eased usage. But it would help if he was ready to start taking on more to see how his game holds up. If Broberg isn’t exposed to tougher minutes, whether or not he’s one of six or seven defensemen, it means someone else will have to be. Cody Ceci has struggled to do that, and Brett Kulak’s not the ideal option, either. Nor is Desharnais, who would draw in as the team’s seventh defenseman.

Then there’s the goaltending behind Skinner. If he’s out for any extended period of time, there’s no guarantee someone like Campbell can rise to the occasion.

GettyImages 1473009839 scaled e1696390801356

Oilers goalie Jack Campbell warms up prior to action. (Claus Andersen / Getty Images)

The wild card

Can Jack Campbell bounce back after a weak first season with Edmonton?

We should start on the bright side for Campbell and the Oilers: He almost has to bounce back, because it’s hard to imagine him being any worse. Year 1 of his five-year, $25 million contract was almost one to forget, almost right from the jump.

Of the 106 goalies who played in the NHL last season, Campbell was tied for 86th in save percentage (.888). Of the 52 who played in at least 25 games — the threshold for qualifying for the league leaderboard — he was 47th. When you account for the team in front of him, things don’t get any better. Only three goalies in the league had fewer goals saved above expected than Campbell’s minus-18.87 in 36 games. Very few goaltenders, game in and game out, did less to help their teams. Very, very few.

Part of that was compounded by how often he played. That’s understandable enough; Edmonton gave Campbell No. 1 money, so they treated him as such. For whatever reason, though — 21 wins aside — it didn’t work. Skinner deservedly stole playing time down the stretch and eventually took the starting job full-time, putting up a .914 save percentage (about 10 points above the league average), finishing top 10 league-wide in GSAx and earning a spot as a Calder Trophy finalist.

The script did flip in the playoffs, though, and that leaves a small window open for optimism. Campbell was forced to step in here and there and the end result was his most inspired work of the season. If we’re talking about rising to the occasion, his .963 in four playoff games saving 5.3 goals above expected can’t be ignored. It’s for that reason he and Skinner are now battling it out in camp, rather than the starter’s job being a foregone conclusion.

Still — that’s four games. It’s not hard to find four good games in any goalie’s game log and Campbell’s problem remains being able to stay at a high level for a long enough period of time.

A realistic expectation for Campbell may well be to play at the level of a competent backup. A lack of season-to-season consistency was one of the main reasons for skepticism about the deal in the first place; he’d fluctuated between good and bad even after his 2018-19 breakout with the Kings. He’d never bottomed out, though. The hope has to be that he taps into his high-end stretches and, between Skinner and one of the league’s best rosters, has the time and latitude to find something approaching even ground.

The best case

McDavid’s first of many Stanley Cup wins thanks to another incredible season from him and Draisaitl, strong showings from the usual suspects, an enhanced blue line, capable depth and stability in net.

The worst case

McDavid and Draisaitl are a little less than “out of this world” and the power play goes from historical to just elite. The goaltending craters, Ekholm regresses and Edmonton’s Year turns into a surprise first-round exit.

The bottom line

It’s not hyperbolic to say that this feels like a new phase for McDavid and the Oilers. Expectations around them have usually been high, and often unfairly so, but they’ve always come with an asterisk. Now, perhaps for the first time, it feels like falling short of a Cup won’t just be a garden-variety letdown — it’ll be a deserved one.

That’s not just an overall vibe, either. It’s not guesswork. It’s analysis based on past performance and future projections. Now, it’s up to McDavid, Draisaitl and their supporting cast to turn it all into reality. Who knows — they may never have another opportunity quite like this.