Is it time for the Edmonton Oilers to shuffle their defence again?

In Game 3 of the series against the Dallas Stars, the Edmonton Oilers allowed four goals at five-on-five.

That’s not a scenario for success.

Years ago, Darryl Sutter, who was coaching the Calgary Flames, spoke about modern defence, and the words ring true for the dilemma facing Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch.

“The big thing in today’s game is you have to be able forecheck and backcheck, and you have to have the puck,” Sutter said. “You can’t give the puck up. We don’t play in our zone, so there’s not much defending. I’ve coached in three decades now. The game’s changed. They think there’s defending in today’s game. Nah, it’s how much you have the puck. Teams that play around in their own zone think they’re defending but they’re generally getting scored on or taking faceoffs and they need a goalie to stand on his head if that’s the way they play.”

This is the case with Knoblauch’s team at this time.

Fans are upset because Edmonton’s defencemen aren’t defending well, but there’s more to it.

The amount of time spent defending is having the greatest impact and negated a brilliant first period in Game 3.

Edmonton’s passing from defencemen, and the transport of the puck out of the zone is part of the issue.

What’s going on?

The Oilers ran most of the regular season and playoffs (so far) with six men.

Looking at their regular season numbers, compared to playoff totals, reveals a peculiar set of stats.

All totals five-on-five

During the regular season, the Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard pair delivered elite results. They benefited heavily from playing with Connor McDavid, with the team posting a mind-blowing 64 percent goal share at five-on-five when Bouchard and the captain shared the ice.

The Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci pairing ran at 53 percent together during the regular season, Nurse-McDavid (58 percent goal share) another attractive option for Knoblauch.

The Brett Kulak and Vincent Desharnais duo (51 percent) also had success. There was mix and matching on the second and third pairs but the Edmonton defence was fairly stable.

The playoffs have been a different matter.

Nurse has a five-on-five goal share of 31 percent (8-18), a stunning number for the veteran. With Nurse off the ice, Edmonton owns a 63 percent goal share.

Nurse has played with Ceci (4-10 goals in 147 minutes) and Desharnais (2-7 goals in 84 minutes) with devastating results.

He is 2-1 goals with Bouchard in seven minutes.

Nurse is a cornerstone piece of the Oilers roster and struggling this postseason.

Ideally, he is paired with a strong passing defender, someone like Bouchard. It’s too late for this season, Bouchard is effective with Ekholm and the deadline was months ago, but as the offseason approaches it’s clear the team needs an upgrade in this area.

What to do right now?

The Oilers ran the six-man unit for most of the year, eschewing others in the name of consistency.

On one level it made sense. The club was in a hole early and needed to fight back into the playoff race, secure a position and (later) push for the top of the division or at least home-ice advantage in the first round.

It left the team without many options in case of injury or a dive in performance.

Young defenceman Philip Broberg played very little (12 games, just two after Nov. 22) and deadline pickup Troy Stecher is lost for the season.

Knoblauch doesn’t have many viable options.

Shuffle?

During the playoff run, Bouchard’s minutes have increased to 25 (from 23 during the regular season). Ekholm is at 21:49, an increase of about 30 seconds over the regular season.

Bouchard averages four minutes per game on special teams, all devoted to the power play. Ekholm averages 17:44 at five-on-five. Knoblauch may want to consider taking two minutes away from the Nurse pairing and adding it to the chores for Ekholm-Bouchard.

That would put Bouchard at 27 minutes, but there’s no tomorrow if the Oilers can’t win against the Stars over the next few days.

Knoblauch will need to use Kulak as the left-side option for the second pair and could increase his five-on-five minutes. He’s at 15:14 per game and is used as depth on the penalty kill.

Kulak’s 15 minutes trails the Nurse total this playoff run (Nurse at 16:38) at five-on-five. He’s such a good skater, the club might move 90 seconds of time in that game state from Nurse to Kulak.

Best partner for Kulak? He has a 53 percent expected goal share with Desharnais in 106 minutes and has been less successful with Ceci (35 percent) in the metric.

Ironically, Kulak-Ceci has been more successful in goal share, but it’s a very small sample.

If the Oilers run Ekholm-Bouchard and Kulak-Desharnais/Ceci heavily at five-on-five, the Nurse minutes could be reduced from the current five-on-five total (16:38) to something around a dozen minutes. Added to Nurse’s penalty killing duties, he could come in around 14-15 minutes over the next few games.

Nurse has had success as recently as the regular season, and we don’t know what the issue is from the outside, but in the games ahead reducing his minutes is the prudent call.

What about Broberg?

The struggles of the second and third pairings may bring opportunity for Broberg, but there’s risk.

Getting into the Oilers lineup after so few games from November to May would be a big ask of a young player. He is mostly unknown to Knoblauch, who found a defensive group he liked and ran with it all season.

Oilers fans may best remember Broberg for a marginal penalty call during the second period of Game 5 of the playoff series against the Vegas Golden Knights last spring. Combined with a penalty to Mattias Janmark shortly thereafter, Edmonton gave up two power-play goals in a short period of a pivotal game.

In late November, it looked like Broberg would be dealt.

Plans to pair him with Ekholm in preseason were dashed when the veteran was injured before training camp. Management didn’t follow up on the idea of playing Broberg on the right side during his time with the AHL Bakersfield Condors, so the perceived roster opening never developed.

It also helped that Desharnais played so well for the NHL team.

There were calls for the organization to play Broberg more later in the season, once the playoff berth had been secured.

Edmonton rushed for the division championship and Knoblauch did not acquaint himself with the player.

Inserting him into the lineup now, unless it’s as a seventh defenceman, would seem to run counter with the organization’s handling of this player.

Then again, the absence of alternatives can make the unlikely suddenly possible.

Bottom line

In the series against the Vancouver Canucks, Knoblauch enjoyed a “Scotty Bowman” series of brilliant decisions that all worked out.

He switched goalies (Calvin Pickard in for Stuart Skinner, and then back again), moved Dylan Holloway to the second line, sent Corey Perry to the press box and shuffled the defensive pairings.

The decision on defence seems more daunting and fraught with danger, but Knoblauch’s resume as a problem solver is growing during this year’s playoffs.

We wait.

(Photo: Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)

Originally Appeared Here