Lowetide: 9 Bold Edmonton Oilers Predictions For 2023-24

Over the last three summers, I’ve made nine bold predictions for the Edmonton Oilers season to come. I was correct on five in the article last August and narrowly missed on a sixth. Despite my crystal ball missing out on the major predictions, I believe those will come true this year.

Here are the bold predictions for 2023-24.

1. The Oilers will win the sixth Stanley Cup in team history

Connor McDavid lifting the Stanley Cup in victory seems inevitable, and the last two seasons have announced the team’s readiness to win it all.

Another strong scoring season by the captain, Leon Draisaitl and the support group around them will be necessary. Good health for the key players is also vital and young contributors like Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway need to take on key roles.

Edmonton will face the Los Angeles Kings, Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche and New Jersey Devils on the way to winning the championship. It will be a grueling spring, with all but the first round going six games or more.

McDavid will threaten the all-time single-season playoff point total on his way to the Conn Smythe trophy.

2. Evan Bouchard will deliver a monster season offensively

One of the reasons Oilers general manager Ken Holland will sign Bouchard to a two-year deal this summer comes from the young defenceman’s change in deployment.

After the trade deadline, Bouchard took over as RH quarterback on the blue line. His numbers soared. In the final 21 games of the season, including all game states, Bouchard scored 5-14-19, a 74-point pace over an entire season. Only three defenders in the entire NHL (Erik Karlsson, Quinn Hughes, Josh Morrissey) scored more a year ago.

A reasonable prediction for Bouchard based on his own past is a little shy of those numbers, but he’s capable of putting up a handsome total.

As important, he showed an ability to take on top-four minutes and outscore a year ago. Bouchard is the final impact draft pick of the McDavid era, and he’ll make headlines in 2023-24.

3. Connor McDavid scores less, still wins Art Ross Trophy

A reasonable estimate of McDavid’s scoring totals in 2023-24 has him posting a lower number than in 2022-23.

Reasons for the downturn have nothing to do with eroding talent, but rather a more mature team top to bottom. No one questions the Oilers’ ability to score, and the power play has reached historic heights.

Suppressing offence for opponents should become more of a priority during the coming season. Edmonton will be aggressive offensively all through the year, but a few more dump-ins when up by three and staying on the right side of the puck will help the overall goal share.

McDavid’s offensive ability is so breathtaking that he helps the defence by creating at the other end. As was the case in the Wayne Gretzky era, the rest of the roster (at times) gets caught up in the goal-scoring excitement and forgets to mind the store.

The Oilers should be a much better defensive team this year. Playing that style all year will reduce McDavid’s offence, and better prepare the entire team for playoff-style hockey.

He’ll deliver more than enough to win the scoring title.

4. Oilers finish with a 55-percent goal share at five-on-five

This will be a key ingredient for playoff success in Edmonton. Last season, the Oilers owned a 53-percent goal share five-on-five during the regular season. That was good enough for No. 12 in the NHL.

The team’s special teams numbers (107-71, 60 percent) are championship calibre.

The five-on-five game state is the biggest in hockey. Edmonton’s elite talent should allow the club to dominate in this area but it has not been the case.

Since the arrival of Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson from Bakersfield in February 2022, the Oilers own a 54 percent goal share five-on-five. After the acquisition of Mattias Ekholm at the 2023 trade deadline, the goal share blossomed (57-40, 59 percent) to championship levels.

Regression came in the playoffs and there is work to do, but estimating the Oilers at 55 percent is a reasonable number. The team can win the Stanley Cup from there.

Dylan Holloway. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

5. Dylan Holloway blossoms, takes on larger role

Edmonton used Holloway sparingly for much of the 2022-23 season. When he got hurt, the young forward was sent to the AHL Bakersfield Condors and did not return.

He was highly productive in the minors (7-3-10 in 12 games) and looks poised to take on a third-line role for the NHL team in 2023-24.

There’s a player here who can help, and Holloway has shown it in fits and starts. During a seven-game run in early January, he scored twice (five points) and posted a 4.23 pts-60 total at five-on-five. His expected goals were at 73 percent.

In that seven-game period, Holloway and McLeod outscored opponents 5-0 in just 23 minutes together. The goal share was 86 percent. Clearly on a heater, but for the season (123 minutes together) the duo outscored opponents 10-5 and played well with multiple other wingers.

Holloway has utility. He can play centre or wing, is useful on special teams, has size and speed, plays a rugged style and touches the puck more than the average middle-six forward entering the NHL.

Bet on Holloway to post some solid numbers, and contribute significantly this year.

6. Leon Draisaitl shoots the moon, hits 50 goals again

As is the case with the McDavid projection, Draisaitl’s overall point production may level off (128 points in 2022-23) or slide a little. The benefit will come in outscoring at five-on-five.

Draisaitl’s streak of 50-goal seasons, now at two in a row and three overall, will continue in 2023-24.

It’s the easiest bet in this group of nine, because the big man’s dominance in power-play scoring is overwhelming. Last year, he scored 32 goals with the man advantage, giving him a massive lead over McDavid (21) who finished second in the league.

There will be many stories surrounding Draisaitl’s improved outscoring results at five-on-five, but the 50-goal season will grab some headlines, too.

7. Jay Woodcroft wins coach of the year award

The Edmonton Oilers own a 76-32-12 record during the regular season with Woodcroft at the helm. By any measure, he is easily the best Oilers coach since Craig MacTavish, possibly before him.

In the spring, Woodcroft was outcoached in the series against Vegas Golden Knights. He was unable to find the solution against Jack Eichel at five-on-five, as he bet on veterans when youngster McLeod offered the best bet based on the limited information available during the series.

Woodcroft is a smart hockey man who values both the numbers and the video. The old phrase “a smart man never lets the same dog bite him twice” applies to Woodcroft, who might be the most prepared coach in the game.

Woodcroft believes in his players, deploys them in a unique fashion and before last year’s playoffs was never hesitant to roll with youth as an option.

Bet on him to play a starring role in the season to come. He will take home the Jack Adams Award as the league’s top coach.

8. Oilers win the Pacific Division

The Oilers have won the division six times, winning the Smythe every year between 1982 and 1987. Nothing since.

Edmonton has two Stanley Cup victories (1988, 1990) since then.

The long drought will come to an end this season. Edmonton’s explosive offence married to a more mature approach defensively and a recovery in net by Jack Campbell (or his replacement) will win the day.

The key for the Oilers this coming season is a fast start. The club traditionally spends the early part of the campaign tweaking and checking under the hood. The disappointment of losing to the Golden Knights after having a tougher time getting out of the first round will motivate the club to stay the course.

Expect a fast start and something close to a wire-to-wire finish in the Pacific.

9. Mattias Ekholm finishes top-five in Norris Trophy voting

Mattias Ekholm has been a substantial talent in the league for many years but has been overlooked for much of it. When he arrived in the NHL, Shea Weber and Ryan Suter were the big names on Nashville’s defence. Roman Josi arrived a few years later and the team dealt for P.K. Subban midway through Ekholm’s time with the Predators.

Ekholm finished No. 10 in Norris Trophy voting in 2018-19, but the Nashville votes landed elsewhere in his time there.

That will change this season. Ekholm’s importance to the success of the Oilers is huge. In the time he spent with the team last year, Ekholm mentored Bouchard and helped establish a strong second pairing. He also took the pressure off the top pair (led by Darnell Nurse) and took on more of the heavy lifting against elite competition.

The time is right for Ekholm. He’ll play for a strong team, spend the entire year in the spotlight and most importantly, he’ll play a feature role in the team’s success.

Ekholm won’t win the Norris, but he will finish top five.

Previously in this series