The trade deadline is more than two months away, but the Edmonton Oilers may strike early this season.
Multiple areas of need and a tightening playoff race add some urgency to the situation in Edmonton.
The Oilers have been sending away talent in search of the Stanley Cup steadily. In fact, the first trade designed to hurry up the process came on the same night the organization drafted Connor McDavid in 2015.
The cost of acquiring Griffin Reinhart was significant, but fans don’t complain about giving up the future if the solution acquired helps the team now. A recent example is the acquisition of Mattias Ekholm at the 2023 deadline.
If we make a list of things the Oilers need to acquire between now and the 2024 deadline (substantial goaltender, help on defence, a middle-six forward), the presumed asset cost will run at least five deep.
What are the top six assets in the organization?
1. 2024 first-round selection
NHL general managers love to acquire first-round selections, partly because it gives management a chance to put their stamp on the organization. It can also help ignite a fan base, although (as Oilers fans know) too many early trips to the podium can get tiresome.
Edmonton’s first in 2024 could be higher than last season, when the pick dealt for Ekholm landed at No. 24 (Tanner Molendyk selected by the Nashville Predators).
The Oilers’ current standings position has the club in the top 10, but if things break right for the team the 2024 first-round pick should be in the 18-32 range.
The first-round pick is the top asset and the club will move it. The question is, what will general manager Ken Holland use it on? Goaltending is the key need, but the top pick is unlikely to be used on a rental.
2. LHD Philip Broberg
The club can’t find room for 2019 No. 8 selection Philip Broberg, and there is interest in this player. Broberg’s AHL numbers (10-5 goals at even strength this year, four points in 10 games — all at even strength) suggest he’s good for the minors and the eye test agrees.
In normal times, it’s doubtful Edmonton would consider trading Broberg. He’s a value contract, a true plug-and-play if injuries hit and is likely to play many NHL seasons in a feature (top two pairings) role.
The Oilers have all of their cannons pointed in one direction: The Stanley Cup.
Broberg has great curb appeal, there’s size and speed and he can handle the puck. He is a raw talent, and an NHL team will have to endure some growing pains as he adjusts to the speed and workload of the world’s best league.
As much as the first-round selection in 2024 is more valuable (and it is), chances are Broberg’s career lands him as the most valuable piece traded by the team at this year’s deadline. In over 600 five-on-five minutes over the past two NHL seasons, his goal share is 52 percent. He can play right now.
3. RW Xavier Bourgault
The Oilers’ top prospect currently, Bourgault has had difficulty scoring goals again this season.
His two-way game is far beyond what junior scouting reports suggested on his draft day. Bourgault posted 47-36 goals at even strength since turning pro, that’s a 57 percent goal share in the discipline.
In his first 83 AHL games, he has scored 17-27-44 (0.53 points per game) and that includes significant power-play success.
He went 1-2-3 with Sam Gagner and Lane Pederson as his linemates in the first three games of the season, and has not been able to find the range offensively since then.
Bourgault’s main skill at the pro level so far is turning over pucks via a relentless forecheck and great anticipation. He was drafted as an offensive winger, his resume in pro hockey so far suggests he may spend his NHL career as a two-way, middle-six winger.
Bourgault is likely available, and he has NHL talent, but his value is not high at this time. That may keep him in the organization.
4. 2024 second-round pick
The two most likely assets out are the top Oilers picks in the 2024 draft.
In the past several years, Edmonton has traded its second-round pick for quality prospects. In 2020, the club added Andreas Athanasiou from the Detroit Red Wings for the selection that was used on young defensive phenom Brock Faber, now of the Minnesota Wild. The 2021 pick (which netted Aatu Räty for the New York Islanders) was also used to acquire Athanasiou.
The 2022 pick (used on Lane Hutson by the Montreal Canadiens) allowed the Oilers to acquire Brett Kulak.
The Oilers are shopping for multiple upgrades and the second-round pick is likely part of the assets out at or near the deadline.
5. W Raphael Lavoie
Raphael Lavoie is one of the best prospects in the system and is the owner of a dominant skill.
Lavoie’s AHL career (152 games) reflects his status as a volume shooter (2.9 shots per game) and a first-shot scorer (12 percent) at the minor-league level. Lavoie’s size (6-foot-4, 215 pounds) and pure scoring ability (he has 35 goals in his last 79 AHL games, including playoffs) give him enough value to be considered as a trade piece at the deadline.
There are some down arrows. He is getting better at using his body and is fast enough at the AHL level, but consistency has been an issue.
Lavoie scored four goals in his first five AHL games this season, and earned a recall to Edmonton. After being returned, he has scored five goals in 11 games.
He is reaching the consistency required for minor-league players to push for full-time employment in the NHL. There’s a good chance it’s in another NHL city.
6. G Olivier Rodrigue
Olivier Rodrigue doesn’t play much, so other NHL teams may not have scouts on him. That said, if they’ve seen Rodrigue over last and this season, there should be interest.
Rodrigue’s save percentage last season (.912) was among the 10 best in the AHL, and this year’s number (.929) would be No. 2 in the entire league if he had enough minutes in 2023-24 to qualify as a regular goaltender.
The Oilers have slow-played Rodrigue this season, mostly due to the ongoing Jack Campbell dilemma. He’s been getting more starts of late and remains consistently excellent.
He isn’t a famous prospect, and his size (6-foot-1, 175 pounds) may mean he’s a long shot for the NHL. If performance counts, he’s on the radar for a league badly in need of goalies who can stop the puck.
Assets out and return
The big item will be a goaltender, but the asset cost could be as low as a second-round selection. Edmonton is likely to acquire a rental player (James Reimer of the Detroit Red Wings is a candidate) and a top-60 selection should satisfy the ask.
The most expensive acquisition will be a right-handed defenceman, and the cost may mean Edmonton runs with the current depth chart of Evan Bouchard, Cody Ceci and Vincent Desharnais.
The other expensive procurement item will be a forward who can score goals and play a two-way role.
The first-round pick will go to the right-handed defenceman or the scoring two-way winger. If the pick is on a goaltender, that player will have term (Jake Allen is an example).
A centre is also on the shopping list, but will probably be a lesser transaction involving a smaller trade piece.
Edmonton is in buy mode as the calendar turns to 2024, and a transaction could come by the end of January.
Once this year’s deadline is complete, there’s every chance the Oilers’ prospect and asset pool will be so poor that the deadline in 2025 will involve only the first-round selection as a substantial asset.
(Photo of Luke Esposito, Xavier Bourgault and Philip Broberg: Darcy Finley / NHLI via Getty Images)