Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ third line showing promise but not scoring yet

In the opening game of the 2023-24 regular season, the Edmonton Oilers got fed 8-1 by the upstart Vancouver Canucks. It was a bloodbath that included five goals against at five-on-five, with no goals for in the game state.

Despite the devastating score, Edmonton’s No. 3 line escaped unscathed on the night. Zero goals against, 9-2 Corsi events, 3-1 shots, 5-0 high-danger chances and an expected goal percentage of 96 percent.

In the second game, the line ran a high-danger chance advantage of 5-1, with an expected goal share of 58 percent at five-on-five.

The line consisted of youngsters Dylan Holloway and Ryan McLeod along with veteran Warren Foegele.

In the third game of the year, versus the Nashville Predators, Foegele moved up the depth chart and Connor Brown joined Holloway and McLeod. The good numbers kept on coming.

The Oilers have rarely been able to run an effective No. 3 line in recent seasons. McLeod’s emergence as a useful pivot is changing the feel of this part of the roster.

Through the past, darkly

A look at Edmonton’s third-line centres going back to 2015-16 creates a stark picture.

All numbers five-on-five

In the eight full seasons of Connor McDavid’s career, Edmonton has deployed an outscoring No. 3 centre exactly two times. McLeod’s 2022-23 season was the best since Mark Letestu in 2016-17, those two campaigns towering over the rest of the group.

The line also delivered more offence than previous third lines, and that list includes Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

Ryan McLeod

There is more to the third line than McLeod, but he’s a major part of the trio’s success. His 48 percent faceoff percentage is low, but as he matures (McLeod is 24) he should reach 50 percent or more in the dot.

McLeod’s offence is part of his effectiveness. Per 82 games, he is averaging 12-14-26 in overall boxcar numbers, and a 1.52 points per 60 scoring total at five-0n-five in the last three years. That number is more substantial than Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi in their Oilers careers from 2021-22 and 2022-23 combined. McLeod was the only member of the group who did not play a substantial amount with McDavid or Leon Draisaitl.

The offensive numbers for the three men away from the glimmer twins is fascinating. McLeod, a second-round selection, shows well against the two first-rounders.

McLeod is entering the period of his career where the cap dollars need to be considered. If he can deliver another outscoring season like he did one year ago, the AAV ($2.1 million for this season and next) will be a bargain.

Dylan Holloway

McLeod is fast but Holloway might be faster.

The big question surrounding the Oilers forward has been offence. So far this year, he is getting plenty of shots and high-danger scoring chances.

His underlying numbers without the puck through three games show significant improvement in a small sample size. Holloway’s line allowed 24 shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five through three games (third best among Oilers forwards) and his 65 percent expected goal share in the discipline was also No. 3 among Edmonton’s forwards during those three contests.

For his career, Holloway has posted 1.12 points per 60 at five-on-five. That’s shy of a top-six NHL forward and would have ranked as a fourth-line offensive contributor last season.

The young forward is playing more prominent minutes this season. He is getting time on the penalty kill and is gaining a reputation for being an effective shot blocker (accomplished by staying in shooting lanes and enduring pain).

Holloway will need to score more often if he’s to remain on this line.

The indicators, like scoring chances and high-danger chances, are heading in a good direction.

Warren Foegele and Connor Brown

The Oilers have deployed a veteran winger with the two youngsters through four games.

Foegele played well on the line in the first two games but was unable to score. As soon as he moved up to the second line, he posted a goal and an assist against the Predators.

Brown played on the top line for two games, then was moved down to the third line. He hasn’t scored but has delivered solid two-way play on the third line.

Scoring goals

The Achilles’ heel for this line, so far, is goal scoring.

Holloway is a worry. His offence in the NHL so far won’t get him a top-six job and he may even struggle to stay on the third line. The smart money is on him settling in and scoring at least 1.50 points per 60 at five-on-five. If Evander Kane continues to struggle, it’s possible Holloway gets a push in an effort to unlock more offence.

McLeod is fairly complete as a player now, and his output with the puck on his stick will keep him in a prominent role in the NHL for years to come.

Foegele has turned a corner since the trade rumours around the 2023 deadline. He is more substantial as a two-way player and has scored more often at five-on-five.

Brown is either hanging out on the third line until he finds the rhythm after a long injury layoff or auditioning to become the most overqualified checking forward on the team since Radek Dvorak.

The bottom line is this: If the Oilers are going to win enough to stay in the Pacific Division title race, and that is the expectation, the third line needs to do more than just suppress goals.

Through four games, including the Philadelphia Flyers contest on Thursday, the line has played 35 minutes together at five-on-five.

Corsi events are 61 percent, shot share is 56 percent, 63 percent expected goals and an incredible 14-3 edge in high-danger chances.

The line has given up zero goals as a unit and have scored none.

Everything about the underlying numbers indicates the goals will come. The waiting is the hardest part.

(Photo of Ryan McLeod: Gregory Fisher / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Originally Appeared Here