The Edmonton Oilers prospect pipeline delivered in all important areas in 2022-23.
The team called on three top prospects (Stuart Skinner, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway) last season, and the trio helped the Oilers to a successful year and another strong (if disappointing) playoff run.
Ken Holland, Edmonton’s general manager, made use of last summer’s first-round selection (Reid Schaefer) in the massive deadline deal for Mattias Ekholm. He also used prospects Dmitri Samorukov and Mike Kesselring in separate deals to improve the big team.
That’s a tremendous season for the draft and development group for the Oilers.
Those transactions took five of the top eight prospects from last summer’s top 20 out of the talent pool.
Graduated, traded or set free from last summer are Broberg (No. 1), Holloway (No. 2), Schaefer (No. 4), Skinner (No. 6), Samorukov (No. 8) and Kesselring (No. 16), all no longer among the team’s prospect stable.
What’s left is the weakest Oilers list in the cap era, and one of the poorest in franchise history. The Oilers’ cupboard is threadbare, but this week’s draft offered two players who made the list.
Guidelines for the summer top 20
- Players with over 50 NHL games graduate (25 for goalies).
- Players who have been traded or went unsigned no longer appear.
- The list is based on potential and gives zero weight to being close to NHL-ready.
- Previous ranking in brackets (previous ranking is from summer 2022 list).
- This list likes offence.
- This list also likes prospects who can make the NHL in more than one way.
Here are your summer 2023 Oilers top 20 prospects.
No. 1 (3) RW Xavier Bourgault, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
Xavier Bourgault’s first year of pro hockey was a surprise. Highly touted as an offensive player who could be indifferent defensively, the young winger was an inconsistent offensive contributor.
He showed impressive range at even strength, on the power play and most surprisingly as a penalty killer, but his boxcar numbers didn’t pop. On-ice estimates have seven regular forwards playing more even-strength minutes, which would be a major contributor to his lack of offensive output on the season in the discipline.
The keys to his game are speed, quickness, anticipation and puckhandling ability. He is not a volume shooter, his 1.89 shots per game ranked fourth among Bakersfield’s top-six skill forwards. Bourgault can score from the high slot in, owing mostly to great accuracy and a quick release.
Here are his totals compared to other rookie Bakersfield forwards since 2016-17:
Bourgault’s offensive output is in the middle range, unsettling when considering how many players on this list have struggled to deliver in the NHL.
In his final 14 regular-season games with the Condors, he posted 2-10-12 totals and asserted himself offensively.
Bourgault projects as a middle-six NHL winger at this time, with room to grow.
No. 2 (13) LW Raphael Lavoie, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
Raphael Lavoie saved his Oilers career with a brilliant offensive run that began in December 2022.
He didn’t play in the AHL (due to a knee injury the previous season) until November and then posted just two goals and three points in his first 13 games.
Lavoie romped through the next 42 games, scoring 22-18-40 and producing the finest offensive season in Bakersfield for 2022-23.
As impressive, Lavoie began using his size (6-foot-4, 215 pounds) to win pucks.
Every aspect of his game improved markedly. His even-strength goal share was 14-14 (50 percent) through the first 23 games, and 33-19 (63 percent) in the final 38 contests.
Holland mentioned in a media avail leading up to this week’s draft that Lavoie was working out and getting ready for training camp.
Lavoie was inconsistent in the past, always able to scorch the league with his natural talent but unable to harness it consistently. The opportunity for this player is enormous, and his final 40 games in the AHL were strong enough for him to earn a full shot at an NHL job.
No. 3 (7) LW Matvey Petrov, North Bay Battalion (OHL)
Matvey Petrov was a draft steal by the organization in 2021, hidden in Russian junior during the pandemic and under-scouted compared to a normal year.
In his two seasons of junior, Petrov showed impact offence and arrives in pro hockey as a strong NHL prospect. Here are his two OHL seasons, both years spent posting some of the best offensive numbers in the league.
| Year | Goals-Game | Pts-Game | Shots-Game |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2021-22 |
0.64 |
1.43 |
3.3 |
|
2022-23 |
0.42 |
1.43 |
3.1 |
Petrov is a volume shooter and should get plenty of opportunities in Bakersfield at even strength and on the power play. He brings size (6-foot-2, 195 pounds), a terrific shot and the ability to find quiet ice to pro hockey. Petrov gets so much attention because of his release it’s easy to overlook impressive passing and playmaking skills.
He is not a strong defensive player and his ETA for NHL arrival is based on how long it takes him to learn the finer points of playing without the puck.
He is the most promising offensive player in the system.
Beau Akey (Anne-Marie Sorvin / USA Today)
No. 4 (NR) RD Beau Akey, Barrie Colts (OHL)
Drafted on Thursday by the Oilers at the 2023 draft, Akey immediately becomes the best defenceman in Edmonton’s pipeline.
I wrote about him in April as a possible target for the team, saying “plenty to like about Akey, beginning with foot speed and offensive acumen. Perfect fit for the modern game, he can step up into the offensive zone as a fourth forward, transport and pass equally well. There is some chaos to his game and he did play in a somewhat sheltered role.”
Corey Pronman ranked him No. 50, Scott Wheeler had him No. 60 and wrote that he’s “a beautiful, flowing skater with plus-level mobility in all four directions.”
Akey scored 11-36-47 in 66 games, with 40 percent of his offence coming on the power play. His offensive numbers were curtailed in the second half of the season when power-play time was shifted to Brandt Clarke after he was sent back to junior by the Los Angeles Kings.
This is a substantial talent.
No. 5 (9) LW Maxim Berezkin, Yaroslavl Lokomotiv (KHL)
Maxim Berezkin is a big (6-foot-2, 216 pounds) power winger who brought enough skill to get noticed on draft day.
Corey Pronman wrote at The Athletic, “a winger with legitimate high-end skill. His one-on-one play is very good, and he’s able to create a lot of chances with his skill. He has some power to his game, too. While his shot is good enough to score from a distance, he has scored a lot of goals by getting to the crease area with his size and strength. Berezkin’s main drawback is his skating, which isn’t poor, but he lacks quickness and a true separation gear.”
Pronman, who has a strong read on Russians who play in Russia, ranked Berezkin No. 76, so the Oilers were fortunate to get him at No. 138.
Since draft day, he has risen through the Russian system and is now a KHL regular who contributes across all areas of the game. His playoff numbers (2-3-5 in 12 games) indicate his value in one of the world’s best leagues. He recently re-signed with his KHL team, so there’s no immediate plan for him to play in Edmonton’s system, but he is a quality prospect.
No. 6 (NR) RD Max Wanner, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)
Among Oilers defensive prospects, Max Wanner has the most complete skill set and the widest range of skills.
A WHL scout told me this spring, “he’s long and rangy and plays with a miserable bite. I don’t see him as an offensive player in pro and do question a bit at times how he sees himself re: some cheating and decisions with the puck and shot selection. But with some coaching, he’s got the goods. To me, he has all the markings of a guy who gets an NHL shot at some point and will sink or swim based on his ability to keep up with the pace of it. Given how harsh he is to play against in his giant frame, I don’t mind his odds.”
His offensive output (13-31-44 in his most recent 63 games) spiked in the years after he was drafted, and elevates Wanner to “two-way” status as a prospect.
The Oilers recognized it early, signing Wanner to a contract a year after he was drafted — highly unusual for a seventh-round selection.
He’ll turn pro in the fall and work his way up the organizational depth chart.
No. 7 (12) RD Vincent Desharnais, Edmonton Oilers (NHL)
It is a rare thing for a pure shutdown defenceman to rank so high on the list. The last time it happened David Musil was No. 8 in 2012 and he peaked at four NHL games.
A player like Desharnais impacts one side of the game in a big way, meaning by nature he is one-dimensional. It’s difficult to have an impact playing that role, as he is destined for the third pair or dressing as a No. 7 defenceman.
Desharnais earns this high ranking for two reasons. First, he has played in just 36 games, so is 14 games away from graduating as a prospect (the list doesn’t have an age limit).
Second, he is extremely effective in suppressing offence, and that is a need for this organization.
At five-on-five, Desharnais ranked No. 2 among Edmonton’s defenders in shot-against-60, goals-against-60 and goal share.
On the penalty kill, he was No. 3 in ice time and goals-against-60, and No. 1 in expected goals-against-60.
He has mobility issues and when he gets beaten wide the video is stark.
The numbers don’t lie. Desharnais may not have a long career; he’s already 27 and the league is getting faster every year.
It would be reckless to overlook what he is in the NHL: A nasty big man who extracts a chunk of every opponent brave enough to enter his air space.
That has value.
No. 8 (11) RW Tyler Tullio, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
Tyler Tullio took some time to find his way to regular status as a rookie pro with the Bakersfield Condors.
He never lost his confidence. Tullio told me before he turned pro, “I have a lot of tools in my toolbox. I’ve put up the numbers. I’m able to put the puck in the back of the net, make plays. I’m not afraid to go to the dirty areas. I use my body, play hard and tough, I think I have a really high (hockey) IQ.”
He did all of that, and his even strength outscoring plus production was impressive.
One of the areas he’ll want to work on is consistency. He began his rookie season in Bakersfield by scoring 1-2-3 in 12 games. He followed that by scoring 12-11-23 in 38 games, but struggled at the end of the year (no points in his final 13 games of the season).
Tullio projects as a third-line winger, but his strong rookie performance for the Condors gives him more certainty as a prospect than the group below him on this year’s ranking.
No. 9 (NR) LD Nikita Yevseyev, Kazan Ak Bars (KHL)
Half a world away from Wanner and the Moose Jaw Warriors, teenage defenceman Nikita Yevseyev was drafted in a similar spot one year later.
Yevseyev played a substantial amount at 18 in the KHL, scoring five goals and outscoring (20-13 in 48 games) opponents at five-on-five.
He played 11 minutes per game, that’s third pair and at times No. 7 defence.
The keys are age (turned 19 in May), size (6-foot-1, 187) and style (shutdown with a plus shot). Corey Pronman wrote on draft day, “Yevseyev skates and competes well enough and can outlet pucks fine, but the offensive upside in his game is a question.”
He projects as less of a two-way type and more of a shutdown defender, but the Oilers will find out more about him if and when he signs and comes to North America.
No. 10 (5) LW Carter Savoie, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
It wasn’t a completely wasted season for Carter Savoie, but there were injuries that began early in training camp and impacted the entire season.
He was completely healthy and playing as a feature regular for less than half of his 44 games, scoring eight goals and 11 points for the Condors.
His hottest streak came in a seven-game run just after Christmas. He scored five goals and six points during that streak and looked like he was turning things around.
When he’s on, Savoie is a quality first-shot scorer and despite all the troubles his eight goals in part-time play do reflect impact scoring.
His play away from the puck (even strength goal differential: 12-28, 30 percent) suggests he needs work in marking his man and that the injury issues were significant even when Savoie was in the lineup.
He’s a real talent, Oilers hope he can stay healthy and post a strong year in 2023-24.
Jayden Grubbe (Marissa Baecker / Getty Images)
No. 11 (NR) RC Jayden Grubbe, Red Deer Rebels (WHL)
Jayden Grubbe will never be considered part of the 2023 draft haul, but a late May trade that brought him to the Oilers from the New York Rangers came at the expense of a 2023 fifth-round selection.
It was more than fair value for Edmonton, a team that needed a big (6-foot-3, 200 pounds) centre with a nice range of skills. He was signed immediately and will head to Bakersfield this fall to start working his way to the NHL.
Grubbe has speed and enough offence to project to the NHL, but a slight uptick in production would allow him a chance at the important No. 3 centre job with the Oilers.
That’s the bet by management and it’s a good one. Grubbe’s ETA for the show should be late in the 2024-25 season.
No. 12 (10) LD Markus Niemelainen, Bakersfield Condors (AHL) and Edmonton Oilers (NHL)
Markus Niemelainen moves down the list summer over summer, a reflection of Desharnais’ emergence as a stronger option playing the same style.
Niemelainen is 6-foot-5, 203 pounds and owns a skill set that puts him in the same category as Desharnais and the now departed Samorukov.
The gap is reflected in the five-on-five numbers for each man during the 2022-23 NHL season.
| Player | TOI-Game | Goal Pct | X-Goal Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
|
V Desharnais |
11:10 |
63 |
54 |
|
M Niemelainen |
9:07 |
56 |
48 |
Niemelainen is waiver eligible and (if everyone is healthy) unlikely to make the big club this fall. He could land in another NHL city, but his size and mobility should make him an early recall in the coming season.
No. 13 (NR) G Olivier Rodrigue, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
Something is happening with Edmonton’s goaltenders, and it’s a positive trend.
Stuart Skinner was a mediocre AHL goaltender until returning to Bakersfield in time for the start of the 2020-21 season. Since then, Skinner has spiked as a player and is the starter with the Oilers.
Rodrigue’s progress was also halting, owing some but not all to the pandemic. His AHL career could best be described as indifferent in 2020-21 (.894 save percentage) and 2021-22 (.886).
This past season, he took a real step forward (.912) and has emerged as a true NHL prospect again.
He does have draft pedigree (No. 62 selection in 2018) and is back on track. It is one of the most encouraging stories from 2022-23.
No. 14 (NR) LW Shane Lachance, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL)
Shane Lachance is a difficult player to evaluate at this time. He blasted a very good junior league in 2022-23, scoring 33 goals in 62 games.
His age (19) makes the dominance less impressive, but those goals have value.
He is 6-foot-4, 218 pounds and is one of several candidates (notably Berezkin) who may eventually fill the power-forward role thought to be Schaefer’s before the big winger was traded to the Nashville Predators.
Edmonton’s scouts will get a good look at Lachance next season, as he faces more mature opposition at Boston University.
He is a bit of a wild card at this time, but easily makes the top-20 list.
No. 15 (17) RD Phil Kemp, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
Phil Kemp has much to recommend him, and his position rarity (RH defence) adds to the appeal. During the 2022-23 season, Kemp moved up the depth chart in Bakersfield due to injury and the Kesselring trade.
His numbers reflect a successful transition to bigger minutes. His 51-41 even-strength goal share (55.4 percent) ranked No. 1 among signed Oilers prospects. That’s a group that includes men who have played in the NHL (Niemelainen, Kesselring) and represents a new career plateau for Kemp.
Always a shutdown type who could win battles, the recent Stanley Cup run by the rugged Vegas Golden Knights may serve to float his career NHL prospects. That sounds outrageous, but NHL teams copycat every year.
Kemp may well be on the rise as a prospect.
No. 16 (17) RW Jake Chiasson, Brandon Wheat Kings and Saskatoon Blades (WHL)
Jake Chiasson is a player with plenty of utility.
He’s a two-way winger whose offensive strength is as a plus passer, and his determination helps on offence and defence.
He is not a big player (6-foot-1, 180 pounds) for his style and injuries have been a factor.
Chiasson would rank higher, but his offence has not developed in the WHL. His points-per-game since he was drafted has progressed from .87 to .90 to (this past season) .83, and a forward (even a fourth-liner) needs to impact the offence enough to stay in the lineup.
Edmonton signed Chiasson in March and he will turn pro this fall. If he can find the range offensively, he will play in the NHL.
No. 17 (NR) RC Matt Copponi, Merrimack College (NCAA)
An obscure choice by the Oilers at the end of this year’s draft makes a late appearance on the summer top 20. The centre position isn’t an area of need for the organization, but right-handed centres are more valuable and Copponi’s offence suggests he is pro-ready.
He just turned 20 and completed his sophomore season with Merrimack, so there’s no hurry to sign him. His offensive numbers in college a year ago (14-15-29 in 37 games) compare well to other college forwards in Edmonton’s pipeline.
When a player is drafted late with strong boxcar numbers, there’s an immediate search for weakness. Copponi has good speed, plays an intelligent game and involves himself in the play. The only possible worry is size (6-feet, 179 pounds, according to the Merrimack website) and that’s a wrinkle not a negative. Copponi is a long shot but this is a reasonable bet for where the club took him.
No. 18 (20) LD Luca Munzenberger, Vermont (NCAA)
Tracking shutdown college defencemen is an exercise in futility.
If the player is part of a struggling team, and provides little offence, all of the available numbers are downbeat and reflect a poor season.
The only way to track Munzenberger from afar is to compare this year’s numbers to those of one year ago. There is progress.
| Year | Games | Pts-Game | Goal Share-Game |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2021-22 |
32 |
0.09 |
-0.53 |
|
2022-23 |
27 |
0.19 |
-0.3 |
The best news is Munzenberger’s goal share deficit has been cut in half year over year, and he is playing higher on the depth chart.
He is a fine skater, can close gaps and defend. He is not an offensive contributor of note and would project as a third-pairing defenceman should he develop into an NHL player. Munzenberger’s NHL career might be best served by turning pro this fall.
No. 19 (15) G Ryan Fanti, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)
Ryan Fanti had an uneven pro debut in 2022-23 but is a mature goalie (now 23) whose NAHL and college numbers suggest there is a quality goaltender if the Oilers are patient.
His career NAHL numbers (.919 save percentage) combined with his work with the University of Minnesota-Duluth (.921) offer a four-year resume that is compelling.
What happened in Bakersfield (.884 in eight against) and with the Fort Wayne Komets (.894 in 34 games) of the ECHL?
From a prospect perspective, the more reliable sample is the four seasons before pro, with the outlier being his work in 2022-23.
Edmonton would be wise to place Fanti in a position to start games this coming season, no matter the league, and allow him to find his way.
No. 20 (NR) LC Joel Määttä, Vermont (NCAA)
Joel Määttä is an intriguing player whose defensive value outruns the offensive contributions by some margin. That’s unusual for a forward and probably keeps him out of the NHL.
That said, there are no prospects who reach his level of ability as a checker, faceoff man and overall defensive center.
When he turns pro, if Määttä can find a way to improve offensively (it’s rare), Edmonton will have a strong fourth-line center in the Chris VandeVelde tradition. As it is, Määttä is likely to fall shy of that mark.
Just missed
Centre Noah Philp was excluded from the ranking, but would have been well inside the top 10 if he remained an active player. His retirement sent ripples through the organization and likely led directly to the acquisition of Grubbe.
Also considered: Carl Berglund, Nathaniel Day, Maxim Denezhkin, Cam Dineen, James Hamblin, Samuel Jonsson, Jeremias Lindewall and Tomas Mazura.
The summer 2023 prospect pool
| Number | Player | Career Projection |
|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Xavier Bourgault |
Middle-six two-way NHL W |
|
2 |
Raphael Lavoie |
Complementary NHL scoring W |
|
3 |
Matvey Petrov |
Complementary NHL scoring W |
|
4 |
Beau Akey |
Top-six NHL defenceman |
|
5 |
Maxim Berezkin |
Middle-six NHL power winger |
|
6 |
Max Wanner |
Top-six NHL defenceman |
|
7 |
Vincent Desharnais |
Shutdown NHL defenceman |
|
8 |
Tyler Tullio |
Middle-six two-way NHL W |
|
9 |
Nikita Yevseyev |
Top-six NHL defenceman |
|
10 |
Carter Savoie |
Complementary NHL scoring W |
|
11 |
Jayden Grubbe |
Bottom-six NHL checking C |
|
12 |
Markus Niemelainen |
Shutdown NHL defenceman |
|
13 |
Olivier Rodrigue |
NHL goaltender |
|
14 |
Shane Lachance |
Fringe NHL middle-six PF |
|
15 |
Phil Kemp |
Fringe NHL shutdown defenceman |
|
16 |
Jake Chiason |
Middle-six two-way NHL W |
|
17 |
Matt Copponi |
Fringe NHL two-way C |
|
18 |
Luca Munzenberger |
Fringe NHL shutdown defenceman |
|
19 |
Ryan Fanti |
Fringe NHL goaltender |
|
20 |
Joel Maatta |
Fringe NHL checking C |
The additions of Akey, Grubbe, Copponi and Day over the last month represent some fine work by a procurement department badly damaged by a lack of draft picks via previous trades.
The deal for Ekholm was exceptional and Holland made an astute and effective trade.
The job of building back the prospect pool must continue through free agency and into the fall. Waiver wires should be studied daily and a late summer-early fall trade similar to the Samorukov for Klim Kostin deal wouldn’t go amiss.
Edmonton needs prospects, for the future and for the trade deadline. There is talent here, but the group is shy of what will be needed in the next 12 months.
(Photo of Raphael Lavoie courtesy of Ryan Holt / Bakersfield Condors)