Lowetide: Why Connor Brown is a fit for the Edmonton Oilers in free agency

Connor Brown and the Edmonton Oilers are connected in the collective word cloud of the team’s fan base in the same way Zach Hyman and the team were connected in the summer of 2021.

That summer, the ongoing negotiations between the Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs meant the story was headline news for some time. Reporting from Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic on July 16, 2021, confirmed the interest of general manager Ken Holland.

Deals were discussed, draft picks were offered and turned away (Matvey Petrov was chosen with the draft pick in play) and Edmonton finally signed Hyman on July 28. The contract was seven years in length, a trade would have allowed an eighth year to be tacked on by Toronto in a sign-and-trade transaction.

This year, the buzz around Brown isn’t based on a trade. It’s a wild story built around the type of contract Brown could sign due to his injury and inactivity, along with an interview with the player confirming interest in signing with Edmonton (former Oilers winger Luke Gazdic with the interview).

As much buzz as we’ve seen around him, he is a man of mystery in some ways. Brown barely played last season. What are the Oilers getting, if this signing should come to pass? What about the contract? Here’s a look.

The contract

Brown qualifies for a modified contract that includes specific performance bonuses. These contracts are usually extended on entry deals and for players 35+ each summer. There is also a portion of the CBA language that applies specifically to Brown’s situation, via PuckPedia:

“Players with a minimum of 400 NHL Games Played signing a 1 year contract after having a long-term injury.  A long-term injury is defined as a player on Injured Reserve for a minimum of 100 days in the last year. While performance bonuses count against the salary cap, teams are permitted to exceed the salary cap due to performance bonuses, to a maximum of 7.5% of the Salary Cap.”

Brown has played in 448 NHL games, so qualifies for an incentive-laden contract. Edmonton could sign him to a $1 million deal with bonuses, and those bonus dollars would need to be accounted for in the 2024-25 season. The salary cap is reportedly going up substantially, so the opportunity exists for the Oilers to take advantage.

One downside: That rule applies to every NHL team. A club offering more guaranteed money could easily outbid Edmonton.

Offence

Brown played just four games last season, so there’s nothing to be learned from 2022-23 beyond his comeback is imminent. There is plenty of track with this player, and a three-year run of his most recent seasons reveals a productive player, via Natural Stat Trick.

All numbers five-on-five

Brown played for the Ottawa Senators during these three seasons. His most common linemates were Brady Tkachuk, Nick Paul, Chris Tierney, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Tim Stützle.

That’s the top end of the Sens roster during those years, so we can safely project Brown as a top-six forward up to (and the Oilers hope after) the injury.

His production is impressive. Over those three seasons, Brown’s five-on-five points per 60 (1.86) is comparable to the work Evander Kane (1.91) was doing for the San Jose Sharks and Oilers.

Offensively, assuming the injury hasn’t impacted Brown negatively (beyond rust), it’s safe to call him a top-six complementary forward in the NHL. That’s a category that also houses Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kailer Yamamoto.

Underlying numbers

Brown’s scouting report suggests he can be successful in multiple roles and in any spot in the batting order. If true, his outscoring numbers should reflect success while he’s on the ice.

All numbers five-on-five

Each of the three Ottawa seasons under examination shows Brown and the team overall to be well below average at five-on-five outscoring. Brown didn’t cost his team, but he also was unable to outscore the rest of the team while on the ice.

His expected goals were ahead of the results in each season, another good indicator.

Versus elites

Puck IQ gives us an additional area we can view in order to get a more accurate knowledge of his seasons with the Sens. Brown played big minutes, and a lot of them, versus elites.

All numbers five-on-five

Brown was hard-matched against elites during these years, the time on ice per game is well over six minutes. As a comparison, Connor McDavid played 4:47 a game versus elites in 2022-23.

Brown was well above team average in 2019-20, that’s a splendid player card for that season. The 2020-21 campaign is the pandemic season and it was a different league (Canadian division opponents only).

In 2021-22, he was just a hair above average.

Brown’s performance over these three seasons can be described as slightly above average against elites. If he plays with McDavid, chances are the numbers here will improve.

Lines

One of the most difficult things to do in projecting the production of a new arrival is to estimate success on the McDavid line. The captain zooms everyone, creating farcical totals for players who are not superstars but post numbers that imply it.

One way we can estimate Brown’s impact is to view some of his most common lines during his time with the Senators 2019-22. Here are the top lines in terms of deployment over that time.

All numbers five-on-five

These totals are revealing and show a team that was getting outscored a little at five-on-five at the top end of the roster. Brown wasn’t the best player on his line often (if at all) but he did contribute to a group that kept things close.

If we place these players and numbers and then add McDavid, fans should expect an outscoring line with 97-Brown at five-on-five.

Utility

On his draft day, Brown had some strengths and weaknesses and as a sixth-round selection was correctly considered a long shot to make the NHL.

During his time with the Senators, he was used in all game states and was a go-to guy for the team. Quoting Ian Mendes at The Athletic last summer, “Brown is a versatile winger who has emerged into D.J. Smith’s most reliable and utilized forward. Some will debate Brown’s merits of being a top-six forward, but his deployment under Smith is undeniable.”

He spent over two minutes a night on the PK in Ottawa, about 1:30 on the power play and between 14-16 minutes at even strength.

He was a key player, shy of a difference maker, unable to push the river, but a most useful part of the team.

If he can bring that kind of range to the Oilers, which is a combination of Hyman and Derek Ryan, the Oilers would be well pleased with the signing.

There’s been lots of chatter about the Oilers and Connor Brown.

My understanding is the Oilers have interest Brown but would need him to take less to be able to sign him.

There are the obvious McDavid connections. There are also Hyman-like qualities with him that are appealing.

— Daniel Nugent-Bowman (@DNBsports) June 25, 2023

Bottom line

Oilers fans should be heartened by the rumours that Brown may land in Edmonton. If he signs a value deal, the club can shoehorn a replacement for Yamamoto on to the opening night lineup for about 30 percent of Yamamoto’s cap hit.

He should flourish with McDavid at five-on-five, help on special teams and give the team more utility when injuries and slumps hit.

On a team that is in constant need of value contracts, Brown will be one next season should he sign with the Oilers.

He may not be an ideal candidate to play regularly with Draisaitl, who had some issues versus elites in 2022-23.

If Brown is willing to take a discount, management should not hesitate.

Solving problems in an efficient and cost-effective fashion is vital for this organization in a summer where there’s no room to wheel because of salary cap concerns.

Sign Brown if he’s willing. It’s the right play.

(Photo: Geoff Burke / USA Today)

Originally Appeared Here